Dorostol v Septemvri Dragoevo prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Dorostol 0–1 Septemvri Dragoevo SEPTEMVRI DRAGOEVO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Septemvri Dragoevo win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.476

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Septemvri Dragoevo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dorostol 34%, draw 22%, Septemvri Dragoevo 44%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Dorostol v Septemvri DragoevoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dorostol win34%

Draw22%

Septemvri Dragoevo win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dorostol

Septemvri Dragoevo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Northeast

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Septemvri Dragoevo	8	−7	8
17	Dorostol	7	−14	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · septemvri dragoevo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Septemvri Dragoevo a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dorostol v Septemvri Dragoevo~~1.50 – 1.77

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 26 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 1 v 8~~17 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dorostol win	34%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Septemvri Dragoevo win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Dorostol or draw	56%	–	–
Dorostol clean sheet	19%	–	–
Septemvri Dragoevo clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.0 7.3 5.9 3.5 1 6.5 9.6 8.2 4.8 2.3 2 4.6 7.3 6.0 3.5 3 2.3 3.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dorostol down, Septemvri Dragoevo across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,135 Third League - Northeast matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Dorostol at home: 0.67 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). Septemvri Dragoevo away: 0.75 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Dorostol, 1.77 for Septemvri Dragoevo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 26 Aug

DOROSTOL

LLLDLL0–1 · 0–3 · 1–5 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–4

SEPTEMVRI DRAGOEVO

DWLDLL1–1 · 4–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	8	+16	19
2	Chernolomets 1919	8	+14	17
3	Chernomorets Balchik	7	+7	17
4	Volov Shumen	8	+17	16
5	Svetkavitsa 14	9	+3	16
6	Benkovski Isperih	6	+4	11
7	Cherno more II	8	+4	11
8	Septemvri Tervel	6	+4	11
9	Devnya 2005	8	−5	10
10	Riltzi	8	−7	10
11	Botev Novi Pazar	7	+2	9
12	Olympic Varna	8	−5	9
13	Septemvri Dragoevo	8	−7	8
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Fratria II	8	−16	7
16	Ustrem Donchevo	9	−12	4
17	Dorostol	7	−14	1