Dorostol v Chernolomets 1919 prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

DorostolDrawChernolomets 1919

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Chernolomets 1919 73%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chernolomets 1919 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dorostol 12%, draw 16%, Chernolomets 1919 73%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Dorostol v Chernolomets 1919Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Dorostol win12%

Draw16%

Chernolomets 1919 win73%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dorostol

Chernolomets 1919

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Third League - Northeast

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Chernolomets 1919	10	+13	18
17	Dorostol	9	−16	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chernolomets 1919 winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

73% The market–

Us73%

We make Chernolomets 1919 a 73% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–2.5, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dorostol v Chernolomets 1919~~0.83 – 2.54

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 19 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 18~~17 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dorostol win	12%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Chernolomets 1919 win	73%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Dorostol or draw	27%	–	–
Dorostol clean sheet	9%	–	–
Chernolomets 1919 clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.8%

0123450 3.7 9.3 10.8 8.9 5.8 3.31 3.6 7.2 8.6 6.9 4.3 2.32 3.3 3.7 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dorostol down, Chernolomets 1919 across0–5 goals a side shown (94.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,155 Third League - Northeast matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.4% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dorostol at home: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Chernolomets 1919 away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.83 goals for Dorostol, 2.54 for Chernolomets 1919. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CHE 3–0 DOR · DOR 0–4 CHE · DOR 0–1 CHE · CHE 1–2 DOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 19 Sept

DOROSTOL

DLLLLL2–2 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–3

CHERNOLOMETS 1919

WWWDLW1–0 · 6–0 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	10	+20	25
2	Volov Shumen	10	+19	22
3	Chernomorets Balchik	9	+8	20
4	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
5	Chernolomets 1919	10	+13	18
6	Septemvri Tervel	8	+5	15
7	Benkovski Isperih	8	+5	14
8	Botev Novi Pazar	8	+4	12
9	Cherno more II	9	+3	11
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	10	−8	11
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Riltzi	9	−10	10
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	9	−16	1