Devnya 2005 v Ludogorets III prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Devnya 2005 0–3 Ludogorets III LUDOGORETS III WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ludogorets III win~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.127

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ludogorets III are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Devnya 2005 12%, draw 17%, Ludogorets III 71%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Devnya 2005 v Ludogorets IIIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Devnya 2005 win12%

Draw17%

Ludogorets III win71%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Devnya 2005

Ludogorets III

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Northeast

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ludogorets iii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

71% The market–

Us71%

We make Ludogorets III a 71% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–2.3, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Devnya 2005 v Ludogorets III~~0.73 – 2.27

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 19~~9 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Devnya 2005 win	12%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Ludogorets III win	71%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Devnya 2005 or draw	29%	–	–
Devnya 2005 clean sheet	12%	–	–
Ludogorets III clean sheet	49%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 12.5%

0123450 5.4 11.9 12.5 9.4 5.5 2.81 4.1 7.8 8.6 6.3 3.6 2 3.1 3.3 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Devnya 2005 down, Ludogorets III across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,135 Third League - Northeast matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Devnya 2005 at home: 1.25 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 4). Ludogorets III away: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.73 goals for Devnya 2005, 2.27 for Ludogorets III. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 30 Aug

DEVNYA 2005

LLDLWW0–3 · 2–5 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–0

LUDOGORETS III

WDLWWW5–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	8	+16	19
2	Chernolomets 1919	8	+14	17
3	Chernomorets Balchik	7	+7	17
4	Volov Shumen	8	+17	16
5	Svetkavitsa 14	9	+3	16
6	Benkovski Isperih	6	+4	11
7	Cherno more II	8	+4	11
8	Septemvri Tervel	6	+4	11
9	Devnya 2005	8	−5	10
10	Riltzi	8	−7	10
11	Botev Novi Pazar	7	+2	9
12	Olympic Varna	8	−5	9
13	Septemvri Dragoevo	8	−7	8
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Fratria II	8	−16	7
16	Ustrem Donchevo	9	−12	4
17	Dorostol	7	−14	1