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Chernomorets Balchik v Volov Shumen

Chernomorets Balchik

2–1Full time

Volov Shumen

Third League - Northeast · SAT 10 OCT · Balchik Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Chernomorets Balchik 2–1 Volov Shumen CHERNOMORETS BALCHIK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chernomorets Balchik win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.313

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Chernomorets Balchik win54%

Draw24%

Volov Shumen win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Balchik Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chernomorets balchik winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Chernomorets Balchik a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chernomorets Balchik win	54%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Volov Shumen win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Chernomorets Balchik or draw	78%	–	–
Chernomorets Balchik clean sheet	40%	–	–
Volov Shumen clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 8.1 7.4 3.3 1 12.9 10.7 5.2 2 10.1 8.9 4.3 3 5.6 5.1 2.4 4 2.5 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chernomorets Balchik down, Volov Shumen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,127 Third League - Northeast matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.67 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chernomorets Balchik at home: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Volov Shumen away: 3.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Chernomorets Balchik, 0.93 for Volov Shumen. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~VOL 2–2 CHE · CHE 3–0 VOL · CHE 6–0 VOL · VOL 0–2 CHE

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast

CHERNOMORETS BALCHIK

DWWWDW0–0 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 4–3 · 0–0 · 1–0

VOLOV SHUMEN

WWWWWL2–0 · 3–0 · 9–0 · 4–2 · 4–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volov Shumen	7	+18	16
2	Ludogorets III	7	+13	16
3	Svetkavitsa 14	8	+9	16
4	Chernolomets 1919	7	+10	14
5	Chernomorets Balchik	6	+6	14
6	Benkovski Isperih	5	+8	11
7	Septemvri Tervel	5	+7	11
8	Cherno more II	7	+4	10
9	Botev Novi Pazar	6	+3	9
10	Riltzi	7	−7	9
11	Septemvri Dragoevo	7	−5	8
12	Devnya 2005	7	−7	7
13	Fratria II	8	−16	7
14	Olympic Varna	7	−6	6
15	Aksakovo	6	−11	4
16	Ustrem Donchevo	8	−13	1
17	Dorostol	6	−13	1