Chernomorets Balchik v Septemvri Tervel prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Chernomorets Balchik 2–0 Septemvri Tervel CHERNOMORETS BALCHIK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chernomorets Balchik win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.352

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chernomorets Balchik are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chernomorets Balchik 52%, draw 28%, Septemvri Tervel 21%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Chernomorets Balchik v Septemvri TervelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Chernomorets Balchik win52%

Draw28%

Septemvri Tervel win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 11

VenueBalchik Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chernomorets Balchik

Septemvri Tervel

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Third League - Northeast

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Chernomorets Balchik	9	+8	20
6	Septemvri Tervel	8	+5	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chernomorets balchik winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Chernomorets Balchik a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chernomorets Balchik v Septemvri Tervel~~1.35 – 0.73

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 15~~3 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chernomorets Balchik win

Published at 54%, 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chernomorets Balchik win	52%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Septemvri Tervel win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Chernomorets Balchik or draw	79%	–	–
Chernomorets Balchik clean sheet	50%	–	–
Septemvri Tervel clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.4%

0123450 13.3 9.3 3.2 1 17.4 11.0 4.3 2 11.1 7.7 3.0 3 5.1 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chernomorets Balchik down, Septemvri Tervel across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,147 Third League - Northeast matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.62 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chernomorets Balchik at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Septemvri Tervel away: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Chernomorets Balchik, 0.73 for Septemvri Tervel. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.62

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SEP 0–1 CHE · CHE 1–1 SEP · SEP 1–0 CHE · CHE 2–1 SEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 12 Sept

CHERNOMORETS BALCHIK

WDWWLW4–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 3–0

SEPTEMVRI TERVEL

WDWLDW2–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	10	+20	25
2	Volov Shumen	10	+19	22
3	Chernomorets Balchik	9	+8	20
4	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
5	Chernolomets 1919	10	+13	18
6	Septemvri Tervel	8	+5	15
7	Benkovski Isperih	8	+5	14
8	Botev Novi Pazar	8	+4	12
9	Cherno more II	9	+3	11
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	10	−8	11
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Riltzi	9	−10	10
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	9	−16	1