Chernolomets 1919 v Devnya 2005 prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Chernolomets 1919 3–1 Devnya 2005 CHERNOLOMETS 1919 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chernolomets 1919 win~~80%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.059

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chernolomets 1919 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chernolomets 1919 80%, draw 12%, Devnya 2005 8%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Chernolomets 1919 v Devnya 2005Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Chernolomets 1919 win80%

Draw12%

Devnya 2005 win8%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chernolomets 1919

Devnya 2005

3Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · Third League - Northeast

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Northeast

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Chernolomets 1919	10	+13	18
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chernolomets 1919 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:04 · locked at kick-off

80% The market–

Us80%

We make Chernolomets 1919 an 80% chance to win. The model expects 2.9–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chernolomets 1919 v Devnya 2005~~2.93 – 0.72

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 10~~5 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chernolomets 1919 win

Published at 79%, 80% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chernolomets 1919 win	80%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
Devnya 2005 win	8%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Chernolomets 1919 or draw	92%	–	–
Chernolomets 1919 clean sheet	49%	–	–
Devnya 2005 clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.0%

0123450 2.9 2.4 1 8.4 5.5 2.2 2 11.0 7.7 2.9 3 10.3 7.1 2.6 4 7.5 5.1 5 4.6 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Chernolomets 1919 down, Devnya 2005 across0–5 goals a side shown (90.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,147 Third League - Northeast matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Chernolomets 1919 at home: 3.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Devnya 2005 away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.93 goals for Chernolomets 1919, 0.72 for Devnya 2005. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 5 Sept

CHERNOLOMETS 1919

WWWWDL4–0 · 1–0 · 6–0 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

DEVNYA 2005

LDLWWL2–5 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	10	+20	25
2	Volov Shumen	10	+19	22
3	Chernomorets Balchik	9	+8	20
4	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
5	Chernolomets 1919	10	+13	18
6	Septemvri Tervel	8	+5	15
7	Benkovski Isperih	8	+5	14
8	Botev Novi Pazar	8	+4	12
9	Cherno more II	9	+3	11
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	10	−8	11
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Riltzi	9	−10	10
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	9	−16	1