Cherno more II v Benkovski Isperih prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Cherno more IIDrawBenkovski Isperih

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cherno more II 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cherno more II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cherno more II 48%, draw 23%, Benkovski Isperih 29%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Cherno more II v Benkovski IsperihBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Cherno more II win48%

Draw23%

Benkovski Isperih win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cherno more II

Benkovski Isperih

6Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · Third League - Northeast

Last match: 21 Oct · Third League - Northeast

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Benkovski Isperih	8	+5	14
9	Cherno more II	9	+3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cherno more ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Cherno more II a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cherno more II v Benkovski Isperih~~1.67 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 14~~9 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cherno more II win

Published at 50%, 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cherno more II win	48%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Benkovski Isperih win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Cherno more II or draw	71%	–	–
Cherno more II clean sheet	30%	–	–
Benkovski Isperih clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.6 7.4 4.2 1 9.8 10.6 6.7 2.8 2 7.7 9.0 5.4 2.3 3 4.3 5.1 3.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cherno more II down, Benkovski Isperih across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,147 Third League - Northeast matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cherno more II at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Benkovski Isperih away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Cherno more II, 1.22 for Benkovski Isperih. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BEN 0–2 CHE · CHE 1–1 BEN · BEN 1–1 CHE · CHE 1–1 BEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 12 Sept

CHERNO MORE II

WWDLDL3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

BENKOVSKI ISPERIH

DWDLWL1–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	10	+20	25
2	Volov Shumen	10	+19	22
3	Chernomorets Balchik	9	+8	20
4	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
5	Chernolomets 1919	10	+13	18
6	Septemvri Tervel	8	+5	15
7	Benkovski Isperih	8	+5	14
8	Botev Novi Pazar	8	+4	12
9	Cherno more II	9	+3	11
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	10	−8	11
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Riltzi	9	−10	10
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	9	−16	1