Botev Novi Pazar v Svetkavitsa 14 prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Botev Novi PazarDrawSvetkavitsa 14

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Botev Novi Pazar 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Botev Novi Pazar are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Botev Novi Pazar 43%, draw 27%, Svetkavitsa 14 30%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Botev Novi Pazar v Svetkavitsa 14Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Botev Novi Pazar win43%

Draw27%

Svetkavitsa 14 win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Botev Novi Pazar

Svetkavitsa 14

3Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · Third League - Northeast

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Northeast

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
8	Botev Novi Pazar	8	+4	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · botev novi pazar winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Botev Novi Pazar a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Botev Novi Pazar v Svetkavitsa 14~~1.28 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 19~~8 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Botev Novi Pazar win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Botev Novi Pazar win	43%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Svetkavitsa 14 win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Botev Novi Pazar or draw	70%	–	–
Botev Novi Pazar clean sheet	37%	–	–
Svetkavitsa 14 clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 10.2 10.7 5.2 1 13.3 12.1 6.4 2.3 2 8.1 7.9 4.1 3 3.6 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Botev Novi Pazar down, Svetkavitsa 14 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,147 Third League - Northeast matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Botev Novi Pazar at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Svetkavitsa 14 away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Botev Novi Pazar, 1.02 for Svetkavitsa 14. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BOT 1–0 SVE · SVE 2–0 BOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 5 Sept

BOTEV NOVI PAZAR

DLDDLW0–0 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

SVETKAVITSA 14

WLLWLW1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–6 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	10	+20	25
2	Volov Shumen	10	+19	22
3	Chernomorets Balchik	9	+8	20
4	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
5	Chernolomets 1919	10	+13	18
6	Septemvri Tervel	8	+5	15
7	Benkovski Isperih	8	+5	14
8	Botev Novi Pazar	8	+4	12
9	Cherno more II	9	+3	11
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	10	−8	11
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Riltzi	9	−10	10
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	9	−16	1