Benkovski Isperih v Ludogorets III prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30

Benkovski Isperih 0–1 Ludogorets III LUDOGORETS III WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ludogorets III win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.275

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ludogorets III are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Benkovski Isperih 22%, draw 21%, Ludogorets III 57%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Benkovski Isperih v Ludogorets IIIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Benkovski Isperih win22%

Draw21%

Ludogorets III win57%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 14:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Benkovski Isperih

Ludogorets III

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Third League - Northeast

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Northeast

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ludogorets iii winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Ludogorets III a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–2.0, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Benkovski Isperih v Ludogorets III~~1.09 – 1.95

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 22~~6 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ludogorets III win

Published at 59%, 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Benkovski Isperih win	22%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Ludogorets III win	57%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Benkovski Isperih or draw	43%	–	–
Benkovski Isperih clean sheet	15%	–	–
Ludogorets III clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 9.9%

0123450 5.0 9.9 9.1 5.9 3.0 1 5.7 9.6 9.3 6.0 3.0 2 2.9 5.4 5.1 3.3 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Benkovski Isperih down, Ludogorets III across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,142 Third League - Northeast matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Benkovski Isperih at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ludogorets III away: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Benkovski Isperih, 1.95 for Ludogorets III. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BEN 1–0 LUD · LUD 3–2 BEN · LUD 2–1 BEN · BEN 1–2 LUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 5 Sept

BENKOVSKI ISPERIH

WDWDLW5–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 2–0

LUDOGORETS III

DLWWWW0–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	9	+19	22
2	Volov Shumen	9	+18	19
3	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
4	Chernolomets 1919	9	+14	18
5	Chernomorets Balchik	8	+5	17
6	Benkovski Isperih	7	+6	14
7	Septemvri Tervel	7	+4	12
8	Cherno more II	9	+3	11
9	Septemvri Dragoevo	9	−6	11
10	Riltzi	8	−7	10
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Botev Novi Pazar	7	+2	9
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	8	−15	1