Benkovski Isperih v Chernomorets Balchik prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

Benkovski Isperih 2–0 Chernomorets Balchik CHERNOMORETS BALCHIK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chernomorets Balchik win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.989

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chernomorets Balchik are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Benkovski Isperih 21%, draw 23%, Chernomorets Balchik 56%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Benkovski Isperih v Chernomorets BalchikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Benkovski Isperih win21%

Draw23%

Chernomorets Balchik win56%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Benkovski Isperih

Chernomorets Balchik

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Northeast

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Chernomorets Balchik	7	+7	17
7	Benkovski Isperih	6	+4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chernomorets balchik winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Chernomorets Balchik a 56% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.7, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Benkovski Isperih v Chernomorets Balchik~~0.93 – 1.72

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 17~~7 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Benkovski Isperih win	21%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Chernomorets Balchik win	56%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Benkovski Isperih or draw	44%	–	–
Benkovski Isperih clean sheet	19%	–	–
Chernomorets Balchik clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.4 12.8 10.4 6.1 2.8 1 7.0 10.4 9.0 5.2 2.3 2 3.1 5.1 4.2 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Benkovski Isperih down, Chernomorets Balchik across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,140 Third League - Northeast matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Benkovski Isperih at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Chernomorets Balchik away: 1.67 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Benkovski Isperih, 1.72 for Chernomorets Balchik. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CHE 3–1 BEN · BEN 1–0 CHE · BEN 0–2 CHE · CHE 0–1 BEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 29 Aug

BENKOVSKI ISPERIH

WWDWDL3–0 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–5

CHERNOMORETS BALCHIK

WWWDWW1–0 · 4–1 · 4–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	9	+19	22
2	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
3	Chernolomets 1919	9	+14	18
4	Chernomorets Balchik	7	+7	17
5	Volov Shumen	8	+17	16
6	Septemvri Tervel	7	+4	12
7	Benkovski Isperih	6	+4	11
8	Cherno more II	8	+4	11
9	Septemvri Dragoevo	9	−6	11
10	Riltzi	8	−7	10
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Botev Novi Pazar	7	+2	9
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	8	−15	1