Aksakovo v Volov Shumen prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AksakovoDrawVolov Shumen

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Volov Shumen 67%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Volov Shumen are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aksakovo 17%, draw 16%, Volov Shumen 67%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Aksakovo v Volov ShumenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Aksakovo win17%

Draw16%

Volov Shumen win67%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aksakovo

Volov Shumen

14Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Northeast

Last match: 21 Oct · Third League - Northeast

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Volov Shumen	10	+19	22
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · volov shumen winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

67% The market–

Us67%

We make Volov Shumen a 67% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–2.7, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aksakovo v Volov Shumen~~1.28 – 2.71

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 26 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 22~~14 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Volov Shumen win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aksakovo win	17%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Volov Shumen win	67%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	–	–
Aksakovo or draw	33%	–	–
Aksakovo clean sheet	8%	–	–
Volov Shumen clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.4%

0123450 5.6 6.9 6.0 4.1 2.31 2.9 6.4 8.4 7.3 4.9 2.72 4.2 5.3 4.6 3.1 3 2.3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aksakovo down, Volov Shumen across0–5 goals a side shown (92.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,147 Third League - Northeast matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aksakovo at home: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Volov Shumen away: 2.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Aksakovo, 2.71 for Volov Shumen. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VOL 4–1 AKS · AKS 0–2 VOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 26 Aug

AKSAKOVO

LDLLWW1–6 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 6–0

VOLOV SHUMEN

WWLLWW4–2 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	10	+20	25
2	Volov Shumen	10	+19	22
3	Chernomorets Balchik	9	+8	20
4	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
5	Chernolomets 1919	10	+13	18
6	Septemvri Tervel	8	+5	15
7	Benkovski Isperih	8	+5	14
8	Botev Novi Pazar	8	+4	12
9	Cherno more II	9	+3	11
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	10	−8	11
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Riltzi	9	−10	10
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	9	−16	1