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Aksakovo v Svetkavitsa 14

Aksakovo

6–0Full time

Svetkavitsa 14

Third League - Northeast · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Aksakovo 6–0 Svetkavitsa 14 AKSAKOVO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aksakovo win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.535

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Aksakovo win40%

Draw26%

Svetkavitsa 14 win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aksakovo winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Aksakovo a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aksakovo win	40%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Svetkavitsa 14 win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Aksakovo or draw	67%	–	–
Aksakovo clean sheet	32%	–	–
Svetkavitsa 14 clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 8.5 10.1 5.7 2.3 1 11.2 12.0 7.2 2.9 2 7.1 8.1 4.7 3 3.2 3.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aksakovo down, Svetkavitsa 14 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,127 Third League - Northeast matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aksakovo at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Svetkavitsa 14 away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Aksakovo, 1.18 for Svetkavitsa 14. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SVE 2–3 AKS · AKS 1–0 SVE

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast

AKSAKOVO

LLDLLW2–4 · 1–6 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 3–2

SVETKAVITSA 14

WDWLLW3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volov Shumen	7	+18	16
2	Ludogorets III	7	+13	16
3	Svetkavitsa 14	8	+9	16
4	Chernolomets 1919	7	+10	14
5	Chernomorets Balchik	6	+6	14
6	Benkovski Isperih	5	+8	11
7	Septemvri Tervel	5	+7	11
8	Cherno more II	7	+4	10
9	Botev Novi Pazar	6	+3	9
10	Riltzi	7	−7	9
11	Septemvri Dragoevo	7	−5	8
12	Devnya 2005	7	−7	7
13	Fratria II	8	−16	7
14	Olympic Varna	7	−6	6
15	Aksakovo	6	−11	4
16	Ustrem Donchevo	8	−13	1
17	Dorostol	6	−13	1