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Sportist Svoge v Hebar 1918

Sportist Svoge

1–3Full time

Hebar 1918

Second League · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Sportist Svoge 1–3 Hebar 1918 HEBAR 1918 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hebar 1918 win~~37%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.607

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.623

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hebar 1918 win at 37%.
4′Much as we predicted: Sportist Svoge was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–36
4′KICK-OFF Sportist Svoge v Hebar 1918
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Sportist Svoge 0–1 Hebar 1918
25′Hebar 1918 find the net on 22′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–22–66
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Hebar 1918 win: 37% at kick-off, 66% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Hebar 1918 win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Sportist Svoge win 12%)
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Sportist Svoge 1–1 Hebar 1918
45′A goal for Sportist Svoge on 26′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–41–30
45′HALF-TIME Sportist Svoge 1–1 Hebar 1918
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Hebar 1918 win: 37% at kick-off, 30% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Hebar 1918 win 30%)
49′SECOND HALF Sportist Svoge 1–1 Hebar 1918
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Hebar 1918 win: 37% at kick-off, 26% now
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Sportist Svoge 2–1 Hebar 1918
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Sportist Svoge
80′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Hebar 1918
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Sportist Svoge 1–2 Hebar 1918
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Sportist Svoge 1–3 Hebar 1918
FTFULL TIME Sportist Svoge 1–3 Hebar 1918
FTSportist Svoge 1–3 Hebar 1918 · Hebar 1918 win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sportist Svoge win37%

Draw27%

Hebar 1918 win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sportist Svoge

Formation not confirmed

33 J. Batola

5 M. Boyanov

7 A. Popov

8 K. Ivanov

10 B. Marinov

14 J. Nzila

19 H. Petrov

20 P. Ivanov

21 R. Jorson

73 K. Nhaga

88 V. Karchev

Coach · Zahari Sirakov

Substitutes

1 · N. Zlatinov

9 · K. Shkretov

18 · K. Atanasov

22 · A. Todorov

23 · V. Dobrev

27 · Y. Velinov

87 · P. Mitrov

99 · P. Bergmann

Hebar 1918

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Gruev

55 M. Mihaylov

3 A. Krastev

17 C. Cabo

4 S. Tsonkov

96 D. Sadetinov

84 S. Tisovski

7 K. Pavlov

19 Y. Roemer

33 I. Tilev

9 M. Vangelov

Coach · Nikolay Mitov

Substitutes

99 · M. Yankov

23 · B. Malinov

6 · M. Georgiev

10 · Pepe

18 · P. Arshev

27 · R. Mazan

92 · T. Gergisharov

20 · E. Kuzev

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sportist Svoge

Formation not confirmed

33 J. Batola

5 M. Boyanov

7 A. Popov

8 K. Ivanov

10 B. Marinov

14 J. Nzila

19 H. Petrov

20 P. Ivanov

21 R. Jorson

73 K. Nhaga

88 V. Karchev

Coach · Zahari Sirakov

Substitutes

1 · N. Zlatinov

9 · K. Shkretov

18 · K. Atanasov

22 · A. Todorov

23 · V. Dobrev

27 · Y. Velinov

87 · P. Mitrov

99 · P. Bergmann

Hebar 1918

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Gruev

55 M. Mihaylov

3 A. Krastev

17 C. Cabo

4 S. Tsonkov

96 D. Sadetinov

84 S. Tisovski

7 K. Pavlov

19 Y. Roemer

33 I. Tilev

9 M. Vangelov

Coach · Nikolay Mitov

Substitutes

99 · M. Yankov

23 · B. Malinov

6 · M. Georgiev

10 · Pepe

18 · P. Arshev

27 · R. Mazan

92 · T. Gergisharov

20 · E. Kuzev

Our number · hebar 1918 winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

37% The market36%

Us37%

~~Market~~36%

We make Hebar 1918 a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hebar 1918 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sportist Svoge win	37%	34%	+2
Draw	27%	30%	−3
Hebar 1918 win	37%	36%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	46%	46%	0
Both teams to score	51%	52%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	69%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	26%	−2
Sportist Svoge or draw	63%	64%	−1
Sportist Svoge clean sheet	29%	–	–
Hebar 1918 clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.4 10.2 6.4 2.7 1 10.2 12.5 7.8 3.3 2 6.4 7.8 4.9 2.1 3 2.7 3.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sportist Svoge down, Hebar 1918 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,711 Second League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sportist Svoge at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Hebar 1918 away: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Sportist Svoge, 1.26 for Hebar 1918. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SPO 1–0 HEB · HEB 0–3 SPO · SPO 1–0 HEB · HEB 3–1 SPO

Form · last six in Second League

SPORTIST SVOGE

DLDLWL0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 0–1

HEBAR 1918

DDLWWL1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 4–1 · 5–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vihren	12	+13	24
2	CSKA Sofia II	11	+14	23
3	Fratria	12	+7	22
4	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	11	+10	21
5	Yantra 2019	12	+2	19
6	Beroe	11	+4	18
7	Rilski Sportist	11	+4	18
8	Nesebar	11	+3	17
9	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	11	0	17
10	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	11	−1	16
11	Hebar 1918	11	+5	14
12	Marek	11	−1	14
13	Spartak Pleven	11	−11	13
14	Ludogorets II	10	−1	12
15	Montana	11	−10	11
16	Sportist Svoge	11	−3	10
17	Dobrudzha	11	−6	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	11	−29	0