Home › Football › Second League › Spartak Pleven v Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Spartak Pleven v Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Spartak Pleven

2–1Full time

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Second League · FRI 23 OCT · Stadion Pleven

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:31

Spartak Pleven 2–1 Etar Veliko Tarnovo SPARTAK PLEVEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spartak Pleven win~~40%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.547

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.664

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spartak Pleven win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Spartak Pleven 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
1′KICK-OFF Spartak Pleven v Etar Veliko Tarnovo
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Spartak Pleven
27′We said Spartak Pleven at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–20–11
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Spartak Pleven 1–0 Etar Veliko Tarnovo
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Spartak Pleven win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
28′Spartak Pleven find the net on 27′. 1–0. 1–0 · 68–20–11
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–11
37′We said Spartak Pleven at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Spartak Pleven win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
45′HALF-TIME Spartak Pleven 1–0 Etar Veliko Tarnovo
45′SECOND HALF Spartak Pleven 1–0 Etar Veliko Tarnovo
54′Spartak Pleven find the net on 53′. 1–0 · 74–20–6
54′We said Spartak Pleven at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Spartak Pleven 2–0 Etar Veliko Tarnovo
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Spartak Pleven win: 40% at kick-off, 94% now
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Spartak Pleven
57′We said Spartak Pleven at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Spartak Pleven
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Etar Veliko Tarnovo
79′We said Spartak Pleven at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–1 · 87–12–1
79′Etar Veliko Tarnovo score on 79′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 87–12–1
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Spartak Pleven 2–1 Etar Veliko Tarnovo
80′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 88–11–1
90′2–1 at the end. Our 40% on Spartak Pleven comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Spartak Pleven
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Spartak Pleven
FTFULL TIME Spartak Pleven 2–1 Etar Veliko Tarnovo
FTSpartak Pleven 2–1 Etar Veliko Tarnovo · Spartak Pleven win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spartak Pleven are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spartak Pleven 40%, draw 26%, Etar Veliko Tarnovo 34%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Spartak Pleven v Etar Veliko TarnovoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Spartak Pleven win40%

Draw26%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo win34%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadion Pleven

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spartak Pleven

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

5Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

Last match: 19 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	11	0	17
14	Spartak Pleven	12	−11	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spartak pleven winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

40% The market34%

Us40%

~~Market~~34%

We make Spartak Pleven a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spartak Pleven v Etar Veliko Tarnovo~~1.43 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 17~~14 v 11

~~The market · Spartak Pleven win~~34% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Spartak Pleven win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spartak Pleven win	40%	34%	+6
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Etar Veliko Tarnovo win	34%	40%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	51%	58%	−7
Both teams to score	55%	61%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	75%	79%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	37%	−8
Spartak Pleven or draw	66%	60%	+6
Spartak Pleven clean sheet	28%	–	–
Etar Veliko Tarnovo clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.0 8.4 5.6 2.5 1 9.2 12.0 7.7 3.4 2 6.6 8.3 5.4 2.4 3 3.2 4.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spartak Pleven down, Etar Veliko Tarnovo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,718 Second League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spartak Pleven at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Etar Veliko Tarnovo away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Spartak Pleven, 1.31 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SPA 4–0 ETA · ETA 0–0 SPA · ETA 0–0 SPA · SPA 2–1 ETA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 29 Aug

SPARTAK PLEVEN

LWLWLD1–5 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–1

ETAR VELIKO TARNOVO

DLWLLW2–2 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 2–4 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Sofia II	12	+14	24
2	Vihren	12	+13	24
3	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	12	+13	24
4	Fratria	12	+7	22
5	Rilski Sportist	12	+4	19
6	Yantra 2019	12	+2	19
7	Nesebar	12	+3	18
8	Beroe	12	+3	18
9	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	12	−1	17
10	Hebar 1918	12	+7	17
11	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	11	0	17
12	Marek	12	0	17
13	Ludogorets II	11	0	15
14	Spartak Pleven	12	−11	14
15	Montana	12	−11	11
16	Sportist Svoge	12	−5	10
17	Dobrudzha	12	−9	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	12	−29	1