Rilski Sportist v Vihren prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Rilski SportistDrawVihren

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Vihren 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vihren are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rilski Sportist 34%, draw 27%, Vihren 40%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Rilski Sportist v VihrenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Rilski Sportist win34%

Draw27%

Vihren win40%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 12:15

RoundMatchday 14

VenueStadion Iskar

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rilski Sportist

Vihren

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the Bulgarian Second League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Vihren	13	+13	25
9	Rilski Sportist	13	+2	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vihren winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Vihren a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rilski Sportist v Vihren~~1.23 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 25~~9 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rilski Sportist win	34%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Vihren win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Rilski Sportist or draw	60%	–	–
Rilski Sportist clean sheet	26%	–	–
Vihren clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.1 10.0 6.9 3.2 1 9.1 12.5 8.2 3.8 2 5.7 7.5 5.1 2.3 3 2.4 3.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rilski Sportist down, Vihren across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,725 Second League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.4% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.38 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rilski Sportist at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Vihren away: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Rilski Sportist, 1.36 for Vihren. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.38

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~VIH 2–3 RIL · RIL 2–0 VIH · VIH 2–1 RIL · RIL 2–1 VIH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 6 Sept

RILSKI SPORTIST

LWWWDL1–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–3

VIHREN

WWLWLD4–1 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Sofia II	13	+14	25
2	Vihren	13	+13	25
3	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	13	+13	25
4	Fratria	12	+7	22
5	Beroe	13	+5	21
6	Hebar 1918	13	+8	20
7	Yantra 2019	13	+2	20
8	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	13	+1	20
9	Rilski Sportist	13	+2	19
10	Marek	13	0	18
11	Nesebar	13	+2	18
12	Spartak Pleven	13	−10	17
13	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	12	−1	17
14	Ludogorets II	11	0	15
15	Sportist Svoge	13	−5	11
16	Montana	12	−11	11
17	Dobrudzha	12	−9	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	13	−31	1