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Pirin Blagoevgrad v Spartak Pleven

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1–1Full time

Spartak Pleven

Second League · SAT 10 OCT · Hristo Botev

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1–1 Spartak Pleven PIRIN BLAGOEVGRAD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Pirin Blagoevgrad win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.828

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pirin Blagoevgrad win at 42%.
3′Much as we predicted: Pirin Blagoevgrad was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–32
3′KICK-OFF Pirin Blagoevgrad v Spartak Pleven
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Pirin Blagoevgrad
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Pirin Blagoevgrad
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Pirin Blagoevgrad
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Pirin Blagoevgrad win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Pirin Blagoevgrad 0–0 Spartak Pleven
49′⚽ GOAL · 46' Pirin Blagoevgrad 0–1 Spartak Pleven
49′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Pirin Blagoevgrad
49′SECOND HALF Pirin Blagoevgrad 0–1 Spartak Pleven
52′A goal for Spartak Pleven on 46′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–23–69
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Pirin Blagoevgrad win: 42% at kick-off, 8% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Spartak Pleven win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 23%)
62′⚽ GOAL · 60' Pirin Blagoevgrad 1–1 Spartak Pleven
FTFULL TIME Pirin Blagoevgrad 1–1 Spartak Pleven
FTPirin Blagoevgrad 1–1 Spartak Pleven · Pirin Blagoevgrad win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Pirin Blagoevgrad win42%

Draw26%

Spartak Pleven win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Hristo Botev

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Pirin Blagoevgrad

Formation not confirmed

76 K. Kostov

14 A. Bliznakov

18 V. Gogov

3 D. Ivanov

25 G. Dimanchev

30 I. Kostov

9 M. Kokalkov

80 M. Stefanov

5 Y. Kostov

10 T. Tasev

21 K. Petsev

Coach · –

Substitutes

17 · D. Zanev

7 · I. Ivanov

19 · K. Banev

23 · K. Kurbanov

20 · M. Georgiev

11 · R. Rodopski

29 · S. Kostov

99 · P. Stoyanov

Spartak Pleven

Formation not confirmed

99 P. Petrov

20 P. Spasov

26 D. Stoyanov

8 R. Marinov

27 A. Neves

6 V. Ivanov

21 K. Velchev

4 M. Trifonov

25 P. Antonov

22 A. Kozhuharov

24 S. Adelani

Coach · Krasimir Bislimov

Substitutes

30 · I. Tugay

17 · G. Dimitrov

14 · C. Thiesen

23 · Lucas Macedo

16 · I. Ivanov

9 · A. Ignatov Petrov

10 · V. Shopov

66 · S. Petkov

19 · Y. Pehlivanov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Pirin Blagoevgrad

Formation not confirmed

76 K. Kostov

14 A. Bliznakov

18 V. Gogov

3 D. Ivanov

25 G. Dimanchev

30 I. Kostov

9 M. Kokalkov

80 M. Stefanov

5 Y. Kostov

10 T. Tasev

21 K. Petsev

Coach · –

Substitutes

17 · D. Zanev

7 · I. Ivanov

19 · K. Banev

23 · K. Kurbanov

20 · M. Georgiev

11 · R. Rodopski

29 · S. Kostov

99 · P. Stoyanov

Spartak Pleven

Formation not confirmed

99 P. Petrov

20 P. Spasov

26 D. Stoyanov

8 R. Marinov

27 A. Neves

6 V. Ivanov

21 K. Velchev

4 M. Trifonov

25 P. Antonov

22 A. Kozhuharov

24 S. Adelani

Coach · Krasimir Bislimov

Substitutes

30 · I. Tugay

17 · G. Dimitrov

14 · C. Thiesen

23 · Lucas Macedo

16 · I. Ivanov

9 · A. Ignatov Petrov

10 · V. Shopov

66 · S. Petkov

19 · Y. Pehlivanov

Our number · pirin blagoevgrad winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Pirin Blagoevgrad a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pirin Blagoevgrad win	42%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Spartak Pleven win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Pirin Blagoevgrad or draw	67%	–	–
Pirin Blagoevgrad clean sheet	30%	–	–
Spartak Pleven clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.4 8.7 5.3 2.2 1 10.1 12.1 7.3 3.1 2 7.2 8.5 5.2 2.2 3 3.4 4.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pirin Blagoevgrad down, Spartak Pleven across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,711 Second League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pirin Blagoevgrad at home: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Spartak Pleven away: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Pirin Blagoevgrad, 1.23 for Spartak Pleven. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PIR 1–1 SPA · SPA 2–5 PIR · PIR 2–1 SPA · SPA 1–2 PIR

Form · last six in Second League

PIRIN BLAGOEVGRAD

LLLLLL0–3 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1

SPARTAK PLEVEN

LLWLWL0–2 · 1–5 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vihren	12	+13	24
2	CSKA Sofia II	11	+14	23
3	Fratria	12	+7	22
4	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	11	+10	21
5	Yantra 2019	12	+2	19
6	Beroe	11	+4	18
7	Rilski Sportist	11	+4	18
8	Nesebar	11	+3	17
9	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	11	0	17
10	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	11	−1	16
11	Hebar 1918	11	+5	14
12	Marek	11	−1	14
13	Spartak Pleven	11	−11	13
14	Ludogorets II	10	−1	12
15	Montana	11	−10	11
16	Sportist Svoge	11	−3	10
17	Dobrudzha	11	−6	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	11	−29	0