Pirin Blagoevgrad v Etar Veliko Tarnovo prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Pirin BlagoevgradDrawEtar Veliko Tarnovo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Etar Veliko Tarnovo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pirin Blagoevgrad 33%, draw 25%, Etar Veliko Tarnovo 42%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Pirin Blagoevgrad v Etar Veliko TarnovoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Pirin Blagoevgrad win33%

Draw25%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo win42%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 14

VenueHristo Botev

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pirin Blagoevgrad

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the Bulgarian Second League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	12	−1	17
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	13	−31	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · etar veliko tarnovo winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Etar Veliko Tarnovo a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pirin Blagoevgrad v Etar Veliko Tarnovo~~1.34 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 3 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 1 v 17~~18 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pirin Blagoevgrad win	33%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Etar Veliko Tarnovo win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Pirin Blagoevgrad or draw	58%	–	–
Pirin Blagoevgrad clean sheet	22%	–	–
Etar Veliko Tarnovo clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.1 8.5 6.6 3.5 1 7.4 11.6 8.6 4.5 2 5.1 7.5 5.7 3.0 3 2.3 3.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pirin Blagoevgrad down, Etar Veliko Tarnovo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,725 Second League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.4% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.29 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pirin Blagoevgrad at home: 0.67 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Etar Veliko Tarnovo away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Pirin Blagoevgrad, 1.55 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.29

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ETA 3–2 PIR · PIR 1–1 ETA · ETA 2–0 PIR · PIR 4–1 ETA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 3 Sept

PIRIN BLAGOEVGRAD

LLLLDL0–3 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

ETAR VELIKO TARNOVO

LWLLWL1–4 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Sofia II	13	+14	25
2	Vihren	13	+13	25
3	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	13	+13	25
4	Fratria	12	+7	22
5	Beroe	13	+5	21
6	Hebar 1918	13	+8	20
7	Yantra 2019	13	+2	20
8	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	13	+1	20
9	Rilski Sportist	13	+2	19
10	Marek	13	0	18
11	Nesebar	13	+2	18
12	Spartak Pleven	13	−10	17
13	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	12	−1	17
14	Ludogorets II	11	0	15
15	Sportist Svoge	13	−5	11
16	Montana	12	−11	11
17	Dobrudzha	12	−9	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	13	−31	1