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Nesebar v CSKA Sofia II

Nesebar

0–0Full time

CSKA Sofia II

Second League · SAT 10 OCT · Gradski stadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Nesebar 0–0 CSKA Sofia II CSKA SOFIA II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CSKA Sofia II win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.884

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CSKA Sofia II win at 47%.
2′Little has changed for our model: CSKA Sofia II 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 29–24–47
2′KICK-OFF Nesebar v CSKA Sofia II
11′🟨 YELLOW · 12' CSKA Sofia II
45′SECOND HALF Nesebar 0–0 CSKA Sofia II
49′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Nesebar
53′We said CSKA Sofia II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 24–41–35
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' CSKA Sofia II win: 47% at kick-off, 35% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was CSKA Sofia II win 35%)
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' CSKA Sofia II
FTFULL TIME Nesebar 0–0 CSKA Sofia II
FTNesebar 0–0 CSKA Sofia II · CSKA Sofia II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Nesebar win29%

Draw24%

CSKA Sofia II win47%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Gradski stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Nesebar

Formation not confirmed

13 M. Sheytanov

14 D. Balinov

5 P. Dimov

3 D. Lastardzhiev

21 S. Pergelov

88 M. Simeonov

19 M. Zeggai

8 V. Kunev

77 S. Statev

11 D. Cabanelas

99 K. Parashkevov

Coach · Miroslav Kosev

Substitutes

1 · H. Ivanov

4 · T. Petkov

27 · N. Kostov

15 · O. Klymenko

18 · R. Terziev

22 · R. Ismailov

17 · R. Mitev

20 · P. Bonev

7 · N. Gelin

10 · V. Dotsev

CSKA Sofia II

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Nikolov

20 M. Stoychev

4 S. Chatov

98 B. Petrov

3 L. Ivanov

47 A. Nikolov

22 R. Georgiev

77 Y. Gilov

10 R. Zhivkov

32 K. Yordanov

11 V. Kaymakanov

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Kaishev

14 · I. Dimitrov

21 · V. Bachev

27 · K. Pulev

88 · E. Naydenov

35 · G. Yomov

7 · M. Sorakov

9 · A. Georgiev

18 · L. Kostov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Nesebar

Formation not confirmed

13 M. Sheytanov

14 D. Balinov

5 P. Dimov

3 D. Lastardzhiev

21 S. Pergelov

88 M. Simeonov

19 M. Zeggai

8 V. Kunev

77 S. Statev

11 D. Cabanelas

99 K. Parashkevov

Coach · Miroslav Kosev

Substitutes

1 · H. Ivanov

4 · T. Petkov

27 · N. Kostov

15 · O. Klymenko

18 · R. Terziev

22 · R. Ismailov

17 · R. Mitev

20 · P. Bonev

7 · N. Gelin

10 · V. Dotsev

CSKA Sofia II

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Nikolov

20 M. Stoychev

4 S. Chatov

98 B. Petrov

3 L. Ivanov

47 A. Nikolov

22 R. Georgiev

77 Y. Gilov

10 R. Zhivkov

32 K. Yordanov

11 V. Kaymakanov

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Kaishev

14 · I. Dimitrov

21 · V. Bachev

27 · K. Pulev

88 · E. Naydenov

35 · G. Yomov

7 · M. Sorakov

9 · A. Georgiev

18 · L. Kostov

Our number · cska sofia ii winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

47% The market–

Us47%

We make CSKA Sofia II a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nesebar win	29%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
CSKA Sofia II win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Nesebar or draw	53%	–	–
Nesebar clean sheet	19%	–	–
CSKA Sofia II clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.7 8.9 7.3 4.1 1 6.8 11.0 9.0 5.0 2.2 2 4.3 6.9 5.6 3.2 3 3.0 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nesebar down, CSKA Sofia II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,711 Second League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nesebar at home: 2.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). CSKA Sofia II away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Nesebar, 1.68 for CSKA Sofia II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CSK 2–0 NES · NES 0–3 CSK

Form · last six in Second League

NESEBAR

DLWDWL1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 4–3 · 0–2

CSKA SOFIA II

LWLWWW0–1 · 5–1 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vihren	12	+13	24
2	CSKA Sofia II	11	+14	23
3	Fratria	12	+7	22
4	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	11	+10	21
5	Yantra 2019	12	+2	19
6	Beroe	11	+4	18
7	Rilski Sportist	11	+4	18
8	Nesebar	11	+3	17
9	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	11	0	17
10	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	11	−1	16
11	Hebar 1918	11	+5	14
12	Marek	11	−1	14
13	Spartak Pleven	11	−11	13
14	Ludogorets II	10	−1	12
15	Montana	11	−10	11
16	Sportist Svoge	11	−3	10
17	Dobrudzha	11	−6	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	11	−29	0