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Marek v Beroe

Marek

3–2Full time

Beroe

Second League · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Bonchuk

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Marek 3–2 Beroe MAREK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Marek win~~43%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.495

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.549

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Marek win at 43%.
3′6′ and it is 0–0: Beroe have scored. 0–0 · 42–31–27
3′KICK-OFF Marek v Beroe
7′⚽ GOAL · 5' Marek 1–1 Beroe
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Marek 1–1 Beroe
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Marek 2–1 Beroe
24′Marek find the net on 17′. 2–1. 2–1 · 75–19–7
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Marek win: 43% at kick-off, 75% now
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Marek 3–1 Beroe
45′A goal for Marek on 40′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 96–4–1
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Marek win: 43% at kick-off, 96% now
45′HALF-TIME Marek 3–1 Beroe
47′SECOND HALF Marek 3–1 Beroe
50′We said Marek at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 3–1 · 96–3–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 65' Marek 3–2 Beroe
75′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Beroe
75′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Marek
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Marek
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Marek
90′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Beroe
FTFULL TIME Marek 3–2 Beroe
FTMarek 3–2 Beroe · Marek win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Marek win43%

Draw30%

Beroe win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Stadion Bonchuk

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Marek

Formation not confirmed

21 K. Kostadinov

2 N. Plyakov

3 M. Petkov

23 E. Viyachki

33 D. Kirilov

44 H. Kaymakanski

16 S. Mechev

90 P. Georgiev

10 N. Ganchev

19 D. Goranov

11 M. Miletic

Coach · Anzhelo Kyuchukov

Substitutes

12 · P. Mladenov

18 · R. Yordanov

38 · A. Dyulgerov

55 · R. Sandev

27 · N. Todorov

88 · E. Ajoku

71 · K. Kaninski

22 · M. Georgiev

9 · B. Velichkov

Beroe

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Goshev

4 D. Dinev

17 G. Valchev

2 L. Mihaylov

24 H. Mitev

21 N. Bandev

10 I. Ferrer

23 H. Rami

20 Z. Dinev

8 W. Dual

9 C. Diamanka

Coach · Vladimir Manchev

Substitutes

13 · V. Filipov

6 · I. Mitev

12 · S. Yordanov

19 · D. Yanev

18 · S. Rusenov

22 · G. Bertino

7 · S. Veshev

11 · M. Georgiev

30 · I. Kazakov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Marek

Formation not confirmed

21 K. Kostadinov

2 N. Plyakov

3 M. Petkov

23 E. Viyachki

33 D. Kirilov

44 H. Kaymakanski

16 S. Mechev

90 P. Georgiev

10 N. Ganchev

19 D. Goranov

11 M. Miletic

Coach · Anzhelo Kyuchukov

Substitutes

12 · P. Mladenov

18 · R. Yordanov

38 · A. Dyulgerov

55 · R. Sandev

27 · N. Todorov

88 · E. Ajoku

71 · K. Kaninski

22 · M. Georgiev

9 · B. Velichkov

Beroe

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Goshev

4 D. Dinev

17 G. Valchev

2 L. Mihaylov

24 H. Mitev

21 N. Bandev

10 I. Ferrer

23 H. Rami

20 Z. Dinev

8 W. Dual

9 C. Diamanka

Coach · Vladimir Manchev

Substitutes

13 · V. Filipov

6 · I. Mitev

12 · S. Yordanov

19 · D. Yanev

18 · S. Rusenov

22 · G. Bertino

7 · S. Veshev

11 · M. Georgiev

30 · I. Kazakov

Our number · marek winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

43% The market40%

Us43%

~~Market~~40%

We make Marek a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · marek win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. The market has gone from 45% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Marek win	43%	40%	+3
Draw	30%	32%	−2
Beroe win	27%	29%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	33%	38%	−5
Both teams to score	39%	45%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	60%	64%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	15%	20%	−4
Marek or draw	73%	71%	+1
Marek clean sheet	42%	–	–
Beroe clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 13.5 11.3 5.0 1 15.1 13.0 5.6 2 8.8 7.5 3.3 3 3.5 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Marek down, Beroe across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,711 Second League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Marek at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Beroe away: 1.40 scored, 2.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Marek, 0.87 for Beroe. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Second League

MAREK

DWLWLD0–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 0–0

BEROE

DDDWLW2–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vihren	12	+13	24
2	CSKA Sofia II	11	+14	23
3	Fratria	12	+7	22
4	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	11	+10	21
5	Yantra 2019	12	+2	19
6	Beroe	11	+4	18
7	Rilski Sportist	11	+4	18
8	Nesebar	11	+3	17
9	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	11	0	17
10	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	11	−1	16
11	Hebar 1918	11	+5	14
12	Marek	11	−1	14
13	Spartak Pleven	11	−11	13
14	Ludogorets II	10	−1	12
15	Montana	11	−10	11
16	Sportist Svoge	11	−3	10
17	Dobrudzha	11	−6	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	11	−29	0