Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa v Pirin Blagoevgrad prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:31

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad LOKOMOTIV G. ORYAHOVITSA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win~~54%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.313

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.106

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–21
1′KICK-OFF Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa v Pirin Blagoevgrad
17′A goal for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa on 17′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–6
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win: 54% at kick-off, 79% now
18′We said Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–6
26′We said Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–6
27′Pirin Blagoevgrad score on 27′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 48–31–20
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–1 Pirin Blagoevgrad
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win: 54% at kick-off, 48% now
28′GOAL DISALLOWED · 28' Pirin Blagoevgrad
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win: 54% at kick-off, 80% now
45′HALF-TIME Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad
46′SECOND HALF Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
62′Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa score on 62′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win: 54% at kick-off, 98% now
63′We said Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Pirin Blagoevgrad
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
79′We said Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
FTFULL TIME Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad
FTLokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 54%, draw 25%, Pirin Blagoevgrad 21%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa v Pirin BlagoevgradBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win54%

Draw25%

Pirin Blagoevgrad win21%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueLokomotiv stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Pirin Blagoevgrad

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	12	−1	17
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	12	−29	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lokomotiv g. oryahovitsa winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

54% The market74%

Us54%

~~Market~~74%

We make Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 20 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa v Pirin Blagoevgrad~~1.66 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 2 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 17 v 1~~9 v 18

~~The market · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win~~74% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win	54%	74%	−20
Draw	25%	18%	+7
Pirin Blagoevgrad win	21%	8%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	47%	55%	−8
Both teams to score	48%	40%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	26%	35%	−9
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw	79%	92%	−13
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa clean sheet	41%	–	–
Pirin Blagoevgrad clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.5%

0123450 8.2 7.0 3.3 1 12.5 11.5 5.2 2 10.3 9.2 4.2 3 5.8 5.1 2.3 4 2.5 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa down, Pirin Blagoevgrad across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,718 Second League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Pirin Blagoevgrad away: 0.17 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, 0.91 for Pirin Blagoevgrad. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LOK 1–2 PIR · PIR 0–1 LOK · LOK 0–2 PIR · PIR 2–0 LOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 2 Sept

LOKOMOTIV G. ORYAHOVITSA

WDDWDD2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0

PIRIN BLAGOEVGRAD

LLLLLD0–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Sofia II	12	+14	24
2	Vihren	12	+13	24
3	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	12	+13	24
4	Fratria	12	+7	22
5	Rilski Sportist	12	+4	19
6	Yantra 2019	12	+2	19
7	Nesebar	12	+3	18
8	Beroe	12	+3	18
9	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	12	−1	17
10	Hebar 1918	12	+7	17
11	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	11	0	17
12	Marek	12	0	17
13	Ludogorets II	11	0	15
14	Spartak Pleven	12	−11	14
15	Montana	12	−11	11
16	Sportist Svoge	12	−5	10
17	Dobrudzha	12	−9	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	12	−29	1