Hebar 1918 v Nesebar prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:31

Hebar 1918 2–1 Nesebar HEBAR 1918 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Hebar 1918 win~~59%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.249

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.172

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hebar 1918 win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hebar 1918 was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–20–21
1′KICK-OFF Hebar 1918 v Nesebar
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Hebar 1918 win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
45′We said Hebar 1918 at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 47–32–20
45′SECOND HALF Hebar 1918 1–0 Nesebar
46′We published Hebar 1918 at 59%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
46′Hebar 1918 find the net on 45′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–15–5
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Hebar 1918 1–0 Nesebar
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Hebar 1918 win: 59% at kick-off, 80% now
47′HALF-TIME Hebar 1918 1–0 Nesebar
49′We published Hebar 1918 at 59%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Hebar 1918 2–0 Nesebar
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Hebar 1918 win: 59% at kick-off, 95% now
50′A goal for Hebar 1918 on 49′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
51′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Hebar 1918 2–1 Nesebar
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Hebar 1918 win: 59% at kick-off, 80% now
54′Nesebar score on 54′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 80–15–4
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Hebar 1918
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Hebar 1918
71′We published Hebar 1918 at 59%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Hebar 1918 win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
80′We published Hebar 1918 at 59%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Hebar 1918
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Hebar 1918 win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
95′Full time, 2–1. We called Hebar 1918 at 59% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Hebar 1918 2–1 Nesebar
FTHebar 1918 2–1 Nesebar · Hebar 1918 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hebar 1918 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hebar 1918 59%, draw 20%, Nesebar 21%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Hebar 1918 v NesebarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Hebar 1918 win59%

Draw20%

Nesebar win21%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadion Georgi Benkovski

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hebar 1918

Nesebar

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Nesebar	12	+3	18
10	Hebar 1918	12	+7	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hebar 1918 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

59% The market66%

Us59%

~~Market~~66%

We make Hebar 1918 a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hebar 1918 v Nesebar~~2.24 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 1 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 18~~10 v 7

~~The market · Hebar 1918 win~~66% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hebar 1918 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hebar 1918 win	59%	66%	−7
Draw	20%	20%	0
Nesebar win	21%	14%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	66%	58%	+8
Both teams to score	62%	51%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	85%	79%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	45%	38%	+7
Hebar 1918 or draw	79%	86%	−7
Hebar 1918 clean sheet	30%	–	–
Nesebar clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.6 4.0 2.5 1 7.1 8.7 5.2 2.2 2 7.7 9.2 5.6 2.4 3 5.7 6.7 4.1 4 3.2 3.8 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hebar 1918 down, Nesebar across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,718 Second League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Hebar 1918 at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Nesebar away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.24 goals for Hebar 1918, 1.24 for Nesebar. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 1 Sept

HEBAR 1918

DLWWLW1–1 · 2–3 · 4–1 · 5–0 · 1–2 · 3–1

NESEBAR

LWDWLD0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 4–3 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Sofia II	12	+14	24
2	Vihren	12	+13	24
3	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	12	+13	24
4	Fratria	12	+7	22
5	Rilski Sportist	12	+4	19
6	Yantra 2019	12	+2	19
7	Nesebar	12	+3	18
8	Beroe	12	+3	18
9	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	12	−1	17
10	Hebar 1918	12	+7	17
11	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	11	0	17
12	Marek	12	0	17
13	Ludogorets II	11	0	15
14	Spartak Pleven	12	−11	14
15	Montana	12	−11	11
16	Sportist Svoge	12	−5	10
17	Dobrudzha	12	−9	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	12	−29	1