Fratria v Montana prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FratriaDrawMontana

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Fratria 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fratria are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fratria 59%, draw 22%, Montana 18%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Fratria v MontanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Fratria win59%

Draw22%

Montana win18%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueAlbena Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fratria

Montana

10Days since last match9

Last match: 18 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

Last match: 19 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Fratria	12	+7	22
16	Montana	12	−11	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fratria winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Fratria a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fratria v Montana~~1.91 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 1 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 22 v 11~~4 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fratria win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fratria win	59%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Montana win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Fratria or draw	82%	–	–
Fratria clean sheet	40%	–	–
Montana clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.1%

0123450 6.6 5.5 2.7 1 11.1 10.5 4.8 2 10.4 9.4 4.4 3 6.6 6.0 2.8 4 3.3 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fratria down, Montana across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,725 Second League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.4% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fratria at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Montana away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Fratria, 0.93 for Montana. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MON 0–1 FRA · FRA 1–2 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 1 Sept

FRATRIA

DDDWWL1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–2

MONTANA

DLLLLL0–0 · 1–4 · 0–4 · 0–5 · 0–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Sofia II	13	+14	25
2	Vihren	13	+13	25
3	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	13	+13	25
4	Fratria	12	+7	22
5	Beroe	13	+5	21
6	Hebar 1918	13	+8	20
7	Yantra 2019	13	+2	20
8	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	13	+1	20
9	Rilski Sportist	13	+2	19
10	Marek	13	0	18
11	Nesebar	13	+2	18
12	Spartak Pleven	13	−10	17
13	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	12	−1	17
14	Ludogorets II	11	0	15
15	Sportist Svoge	13	−5	11
16	Montana	12	−11	11
17	Dobrudzha	12	−9	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	13	−31	1