Home › Football › Second League › Etar Veliko Tarnovo v Fratria

Etar Veliko Tarnovo v Fratria

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

2–0Full time

Fratria

Second League · FRI 9 OCT · Ivajlo Stadion

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2–0 Fratria FRATRIA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fratria win~~39%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.618

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.708

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fratria win at 39%.
28′Much as we predicted: Fratria was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 33–31–36
30′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Etar Veliko Tarnovo
40′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Fratria
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Fratria win 32%)
45′SECOND HALF Etar Veliko Tarnovo 0–0 Fratria
53′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Etar Veliko Tarnovo
53′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Etar Veliko Tarnovo
53′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Fratria
54′⚽ GOAL · 55' Etar Veliko Tarnovo 0–0 Fratria
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1–0 Fratria
58′⚽ GOAL · 59' Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1–0 Fratria
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2–0 Fratria
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Etar Veliko Tarnovo
81′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Etar Veliko Tarnovo
85′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Etar Veliko Tarnovo
FTFULL TIME Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2–0 Fratria
FTEtar Veliko Tarnovo 2–0 Fratria · Fratria win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Etar Veliko Tarnovo win36%

Draw25%

Fratria win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Ivajlo Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Formation not confirmed

23 N. Videnov

13 A. Pemperski

4 G. Aleksandrov

5 N. Borisov

8 V. Vasilev

16 S. Dobrev

10 C. Ivaylov

77 M. Nikolov

26 H. Tsvetkov

9 T. Ushagelov

27 T. Tsanev

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · A. Hristov

2 · P. Zografov

6 · G. Ivanov

14 · R. Naydenov

21 · I. Markov

17 · A. Atanasov

7 · R. Ivanov

11 · S. Traykov

25 · S. Makaveev

19 · K. Velichkov

18 · P. Petrov

Fratria

Formation not confirmed

69 I. Iliev

8 R. Rumenov

13 A. Isuf

44 R. Stefanov

14 V. Valkov

11 V. Boev

10 T. Korablin

23 S. Dyulgerov

15 M. Marinov

22 G. Atanasov

7 D. Aleksandrov

Coach · Renars Rode

Substitutes

12 · S. Tanev

17 · B. Kandoussi

76 · D. Gutierrez

45 · G. Trifonov

90 · V. Dijinari

18 · D. Mihalev

9 · D. Angelov

6 · A. Tsvetkov

4 · K. Peshov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Formation not confirmed

23 N. Videnov

13 A. Pemperski

4 G. Aleksandrov

5 N. Borisov

8 V. Vasilev

16 S. Dobrev

10 C. Ivaylov

77 M. Nikolov

26 H. Tsvetkov

9 T. Ushagelov

27 T. Tsanev

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · A. Hristov

2 · P. Zografov

6 · G. Ivanov

14 · R. Naydenov

21 · I. Markov

17 · A. Atanasov

7 · R. Ivanov

11 · S. Traykov

25 · S. Makaveev

19 · K. Velichkov

18 · P. Petrov

Fratria

Formation not confirmed

69 I. Iliev

8 R. Rumenov

13 A. Isuf

44 R. Stefanov

14 V. Valkov

11 V. Boev

10 T. Korablin

23 S. Dyulgerov

15 M. Marinov

22 G. Atanasov

7 D. Aleksandrov

Coach · Renars Rode

Substitutes

12 · S. Tanev

17 · B. Kandoussi

76 · D. Gutierrez

45 · G. Trifonov

90 · V. Dijinari

18 · D. Mihalev

9 · D. Angelov

6 · A. Tsvetkov

4 · K. Peshov

Our number · fratria winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

39% The market42%

Us39%

~~Market~~42%

We make Fratria a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fratria win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Etar Veliko Tarnovo win	36%	32%	+4
Draw	25%	26%	−2
Fratria win	39%	42%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	56%	−2
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	36%	−4
Etar Veliko Tarnovo or draw	61%	58%	+3
Etar Veliko Tarnovo clean sheet	24%	–	–
Fratria clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.1 8.3 6.1 3.0 1 8.1 11.5 8.2 4.1 2 5.7 8.0 5.7 2.8 3 2.7 3.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Etar Veliko Tarnovo down, Fratria across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,709 Second League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.9% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Fratria away: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Etar Veliko Tarnovo, 1.47 for Fratria. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ETA 1–1 FRA · FRA 2–0 ETA · ETA 1–1 FRA · FRA 3–1 ETA

Form · last six in Second League

ETAR VELIKO TARNOVO

LDLWLL1–2 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 2–4

FRATRIA

WDDDWW1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vihren	11	+14	24
2	CSKA Sofia II	11	+14	23
3	Fratria	11	+9	22
4	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	11	+10	21
5	Beroe	11	+4	18
6	Rilski Sportist	11	+4	18
7	Nesebar	11	+3	17
8	Yantra 2019	11	+1	16
9	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	11	−1	16
10	Hebar 1918	11	+5	14
11	Marek	11	−1	14
12	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	10	−2	14
13	Spartak Pleven	11	−11	13
14	Ludogorets II	10	−1	12
15	Montana	11	−10	11
16	Sportist Svoge	11	−3	10
17	Dobrudzha	11	−6	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	11	−29	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Fratria

Match statistics

Line-ups

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Fratria

Head to head

Form · last six in Second League

The table