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Model 1.1
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Dobrudzha v Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Dobrudzha
0–3Full time
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Second League · SAT 10 OCT · Druzhba

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32
Dobrudzha 0–3 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas DOBRUDZHA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Dobrudzha win44%
The market said20%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.787
The market’s Brier score0.328

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dobrudzha win at 44%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Dobrudzha 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Dobrudzha v Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
  4. 18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
  5. 37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Dobrudzha 0–1 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Dobrudzha 0–1 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Dobrudzha 0–1 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
  8. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Dobrudzha
  9. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Dobrudzha 0–2 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
  10. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
  11. 87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Dobrudzha 0–3 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
  12. FTFULL TIME Dobrudzha 0–3 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
  13. FTDobrudzha 0–3 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · Dobrudzha win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Dobrudzha win44%
Draw27%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

Venue · Druzhba

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Dobrudzha

Formation not confirmed

12 D. Stoychev

27 B. Vakadinov

3 M. Pushkarov

11 V. Mitev

77 P. Vutsov

6 I. Aleksiev

45 K. Beshev

14 N. Rak

9 D. Halachev

10 A. Souda

31 A. Dimitrov

Coach · Diyan Bozhilov

Substitutes

1 · D. Iliev

4 · K. Stiliyanov

17 · K. Yovov

23 · M. Fall Ndour

20 · M. Petkov

21 · H. Hristov

22 · I. Carabela

44 · V. Medved

70 · D. Gospodinov

13 · M. Chuba

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Formation not confirmed

15 G. Argilashki

6 A. Dimitrov

8 E. Yanchev

5 Y. Drame

4 I. Klimentov

13 V. Santos

30 N. Zhelyazkov

10 K. Kolev

9 Z. Petkov

96 R. Kostenski

11 K. Dobrev

Coach · Ivan Kolev

Substitutes

12 · D. Altanov

66 · G. Staykov

17 · M. Tsonev

14 · J. Morris

77 · O. Hamdiev

22 · S. Stefanov

98 · V. Yoskov

23 · I. Brikner

24 · D. Stoimenov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Dobrudzha

Formation not confirmed

12 D. Stoychev

27 B. Vakadinov

3 M. Pushkarov

11 V. Mitev

77 P. Vutsov

6 I. Aleksiev

45 K. Beshev

14 N. Rak

9 D. Halachev

10 A. Souda

31 A. Dimitrov

Coach · Diyan Bozhilov

Substitutes

1 · D. Iliev

4 · K. Stiliyanov

17 · K. Yovov

23 · M. Fall Ndour

20 · M. Petkov

21 · H. Hristov

22 · I. Carabela

44 · V. Medved

70 · D. Gospodinov

13 · M. Chuba

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Formation not confirmed

15 G. Argilashki

6 A. Dimitrov

8 E. Yanchev

5 Y. Drame

4 I. Klimentov

13 V. Santos

30 N. Zhelyazkov

10 K. Kolev

9 Z. Petkov

96 R. Kostenski

11 K. Dobrev

Coach · Ivan Kolev

Substitutes

12 · D. Altanov

66 · G. Staykov

17 · M. Tsonev

14 · J. Morris

77 · O. Hamdiev

22 · S. Stefanov

98 · V. Yoskov

23 · I. Brikner

24 · D. Stoimenov

Our number · dobrudzha winPublished 10 Oct 15:43
44% The market20%
Us44%
Market20%

We make Dobrudzha a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 20%. We are 25 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published
10%20%30%40%50% 9 OCT 06:1810 OCT 15:46
Our probability · dobrudzha win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 23% to 20% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dobrudzha win44%20%+25
Draw27%27%+1
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win28%53%−25
Over 2.5 goals42%46%−4
Both teams to score47%48%−2
Over 1.5 goals68%70%−2
Over 3.5 goals22%27%−5
Dobrudzha or draw72%47%+25
Dobrudzha clean sheet37%––
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%
0123450 9.7 9.5 4.9 1 12.6 12.6 6.4 2.2 2 8.5 8.4 4.3 3 3.9 3.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dobrudzha down, Chernomorets 1919 Burgas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored0 of 2
Last meetingsDOB 1–0 CHE · CHE 1–0 DOB

Form · last six in Second League

DOBRUDZHA

DLDLLW0–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–1

CHERNOMORETS 1919 BURGAS

WWDWWW3–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 4–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vihren12+1324
2CSKA Sofia II11+1423
3Fratria12+722
4Chernomorets 1919 Burgas11+1021
5Yantra 201912+219
6Beroe11+418
7Rilski Sportist11+418
8Nesebar11+317
9Etar Veliko Tarnovo11017
10Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa11−116
11Hebar 191811+514
12Marek11−114
13Spartak Pleven11−1113
14Ludogorets II10−112
15Montana11−1011
16Sportist Svoge11−310
17Dobrudzha11−69
18Pirin Blagoevgrad11−290

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.