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Chernomorets 1919 Burgas v Sportist Svoge

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1–1Full time

Sportist Svoge

Second League · FRI 23 OCT · efbet Arena

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1–1 Sportist Svoge CHERNOMORETS 1919 BURGAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win~~62%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.968

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.192

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–25–13
1′KICK-OFF Chernomorets 1919 Burgas v Sportist Svoge
23′Chernomorets 1919 Burgas find the net on 23′. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–11–2
23′We said Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–11–2
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1–0 Sportist Svoge
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win: 62% at kick-off, 87% now
24′GOAL DISALLOWED · 24' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win: 62% at kick-off, 55% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Sportist Svoge
35′We said Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 50%. 0–0 · 50–37–13
38′We said Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–38–13
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
45′HALF-TIME Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0–0 Sportist Svoge
46′SECOND HALF Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0–0 Sportist Svoge
47′We said Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–43–12
48′Sportist Svoge find the net on 47′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–30–56
48′We said Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–30–56
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0–1 Sportist Svoge
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win: 62% at kick-off, 14% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Sportist Svoge win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win 44%)
49′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 14–29–57
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
59′We said Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–27–64
71′We said Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–22–74
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Sportist Svoge
91′A goal for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 4–94–1
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1–1 Sportist Svoge
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Sportist Svoge win 96%)
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Sportist Svoge
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
FTFULL TIME Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1–1 Sportist Svoge
FTChernomorets 1919 Burgas 1–1 Sportist Svoge · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 62%, draw 25%, Sportist Svoge 13%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Chernomorets 1919 Burgas v Sportist SvogeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win62%

Draw25%

Sportist Svoge win13%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 13

Venueefbet Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Sportist Svoge

5Days since last match13

Last match: 18 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

Last match: 10 Oct · the Bulgarian Second League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	12	+13	24
16	Sportist Svoge	12	−5	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chernomorets 1919 burgas winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

62% The market73%

Us62%

~~Market~~73%

We make Chernomorets 1919 Burgas a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas v Sportist Svoge~~1.60 – 0.57

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 2 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 24 v 10~~3 v 16

~~The market · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win~~73% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win	62%	73%	−11
Draw	25%	19%	+6
Sportist Svoge win	13%	8%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	37%	51%	−14
Both teams to score	34%	38%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	63%	74%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	18%	31%	−13
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or draw	87%	92%	−5
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas clean sheet	57%	–	–
Sportist Svoge clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.1%

0123450 12.0 6.4 1 18.1 10.3 2.9 2 14.4 8.0 2.3 3 7.8 4.3 4 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chernomorets 1919 Burgas down, Sportist Svoge across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,718 Second League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at home: 1.33 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sportist Svoge away: 0.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, 0.57 for Sportist Svoge. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CHE 1–0 SPO · SPO 0–1 CHE · SPO 1–0 CHE · CHE 1–2 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 2 Sept

CHERNOMORETS 1919 BURGAS

WDWWWW1–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 3–0

SPORTIST SVOGE

LDLWLL1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Sofia II	12	+14	24
2	Vihren	12	+13	24
3	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	12	+13	24
4	Fratria	12	+7	22
5	Rilski Sportist	12	+4	19
6	Yantra 2019	12	+2	19
7	Nesebar	12	+3	18
8	Beroe	12	+3	18
9	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	12	−1	17
10	Hebar 1918	12	+7	17
11	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	11	0	17
12	Marek	12	0	17
13	Ludogorets II	11	0	15
14	Spartak Pleven	12	−11	14
15	Montana	12	−11	11
16	Sportist Svoge	12	−5	10
17	Dobrudzha	12	−9	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	12	−29	1