Cherno More Varna v Lokomotiv Plovdiv prediction · Pro Cup

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 19:01

Cherno More Varna 0–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv CHERNO MORE VARNA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cherno More Varna win~~45%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.862

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.790

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cherno More Varna win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cherno More Varna was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–30–25
1′KICK-OFF Cherno More Varna v Lokomotiv Plovdiv
12′We said Cherno More Varna at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–25–57
12′Lokomotiv Plovdiv score on 12′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 18–25–57
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Cherno More Varna 0–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Cherno More Varna win: 45% at kick-off, 18% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Lokomotiv Plovdiv win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Cherno More Varna win 43%)
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Cherno More Varna win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
25′We said Cherno More Varna at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 13–26–61
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Cherno More Varna
44′We said Cherno More Varna at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
45′HALF-TIME Cherno More Varna 0–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
45′SECOND HALF Cherno More Varna 0–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cherno More Varna · On: E. Tombak · Off: I. Tasev
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Cherno More Varna win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
64′We said Cherno More Varna at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
73′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Cherno More Varna · On: C. Sidney · Off: Joao Bandaro
73′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Cherno More Varna · On: I. Bounaas · Off: B. Beyhan
74′PENALTY MISSED · 74' Cherno More Varna
83′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Lokomotiv Plovdiv · On: T. Pavlov · Off: Lucas Ryan
83′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Lokomotiv Plovdiv · On: C. Longville · Off: J. Burban
84′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Lokomotiv Plovdiv · On: A. Fase · Off: D. Ali
84′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lokomotiv Plovdiv · On: Y. Iliev · Off: P. Umarbaev
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Cherno More Varna · On: D. Teles · Off: M. Barandas
86′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Cherno More Varna · On: L. Squadrone · Off: G. Ventsislavov
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Cherno More Varna
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Lokomotiv Plovdiv · On: A. Chindris · Off: Matheus Brito
90′Full time, 0–1. We called Cherno More Varna at 45% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–1 · 0–0–100
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Cherno More Varna
FTFULL TIME Cherno More Varna 0–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
FTCherno More Varna 0–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv · Cherno More Varna win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cherno More Varna are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cherno More Varna 45%, draw 30%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 25%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Cherno More Varna v Lokomotiv PlovdivBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 16:51 · locked at kick-off

Cherno More Varna win45%

Draw30%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv win25%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 16:30

RoundQuarter-finals

VenueTicha

RefereeM. Markov

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cherno More Varna

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

4Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

Last match: 16 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cherno more varna winFirst published 15 Oct 16:51 · locked at kick-off

45% The market43%

Us45%

~~Market~~43%

We make Cherno More Varna a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cherno More Varna v Lokomotiv Plovdiv~~1.22 – 0.82

~~The market · Cherno More Varna win~~43% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cherno More Varna win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cherno More Varna win	45%	43%	+2
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win	25%	28%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	33%	43%	−10
Both teams to score	39%	49%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	60%	68%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	15%	23%	−8
Cherno More Varna or draw	75%	72%	+3
Cherno More Varna clean sheet	44%	–	–
Lokomotiv Plovdiv clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.7%

0123450 13.4 10.5 4.4 1 15.7 13.0 5.3 2 9.7 7.8 3.2 3 4.0 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cherno More Varna down, Lokomotiv Plovdiv across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,455 First League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.3% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cherno More Varna at home: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lokomotiv Plovdiv away: 0.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Cherno More Varna, 0.82 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LOK 1–0 CHE · CHE 2–0 LOK · LOK 0–1 CHE · LOK 1–1 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Pro Cup this season

CHERNO MORE VARNA

No matches in our record yet.

LOKOMOTIV PLOVDIV

No matches in our record yet.

Cherno More Varna v Lokomotiv Plovdiv

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Cherno More Varna

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Pro Cup this season