Slavia Sofia v Cherno More Varna prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Slavia SofiaDrawCherno More Varna

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Slavia Sofia 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Slavia Sofia just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Slavia Sofia 36%, draw 30%, Cherno More Varna 34%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Slavia Sofia v Cherno More VarnaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Slavia Sofia win36%

Draw30%

Cherno More Varna win34%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadion Aleksandar Shalamanov

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Slavia Sofia

Cherno More Varna

14Days since last match10

Last match: 17 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

Last match: 21 Oct · Pro Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Slavia Sofia	11	0	11
14	Cherno More Varna	11	−11	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · slavia sofia winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Slavia Sofia a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Slavia Sofia v Cherno More Varna~~1.09 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 6~~8 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slavia Sofia win	36%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Cherno More Varna win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Slavia Sofia or draw	66%	–	–
Slavia Sofia clean sheet	36%	–	–
Cherno More Varna clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 12.4 12.2 6.4 2.2 1 12.8 13.5 6.9 2.4 2 7.1 7.2 3.7 3 2.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slavia Sofia down, Cherno More Varna across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,458 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.6% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Slavia Sofia at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Cherno More Varna away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Slavia Sofia, 1.03 for Cherno More Varna. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CHE 1–3 SLA · SLA 0–0 CHE · CHE 1–1 SLA · CHE 1–0 SLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 21 Aug

SLAVIA SOFIA

DLWDLL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

CHERNO MORE VARNA

WLLDDL3–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	10	+19	28
2	CSKA Sofia	11	+18	27
3	Ludogorets	10	+14	26
4	CSKA 1948	12	+12	25
5	Botev Plovdiv	12	−1	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	11	−2	17
7	Spartak Varna	12	−6	13
8	Slavia Sofia	11	0	11
9	Dunav Ruse	12	−6	11
10	Botev Vratsa	12	−11	10
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	12	−7	9
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	−8	8
13	Septemvri Sofia	11	−11	8
14	Cherno More Varna	11	−11	6