Septemvri Sofia v Lokomotiv Sofia prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Septemvri SofiaDrawLokomotiv Sofia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Lokomotiv Sofia 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lokomotiv Sofia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Septemvri Sofia 34%, draw 26%, Lokomotiv Sofia 40%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Septemvri Sofia v Lokomotiv SofiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Septemvri Sofia win34%

Draw26%

Lokomotiv Sofia win40%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Septemvri Sofia

Lokomotiv Sofia

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

Last match: 24 Oct · the Bulgarian First League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	12	−7	9
13	Septemvri Sofia	11	−11	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lokomotiv sofia winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Lokomotiv Sofia a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Septemvri Sofia v Lokomotiv Sofia~~1.30 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 9~~13 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Septemvri Sofia win	34%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Lokomotiv Sofia win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Septemvri Sofia or draw	60%	–	–
Septemvri Sofia clean sheet	24%	–	–
Lokomotiv Sofia clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.9 9.2 6.7 3.2 1 8.4 12.2 8.5 4.1 2 5.5 7.7 5.5 2.6 3 2.4 3.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Septemvri Sofia down, Lokomotiv Sofia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,458 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.6% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.12 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Septemvri Sofia at home: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lokomotiv Sofia away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Septemvri Sofia, 1.43 for Lokomotiv Sofia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~LOK 1–1 SEP · LOK 3–0 SEP · SEP 1–0 LOK · SEP 0–2 LOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 23 Aug

SEPTEMVRI SOFIA

WDLLLL1–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–3

LOKOMOTIV SOFIA

LDLWDD1–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	10	+19	28
2	CSKA Sofia	11	+18	27
3	Ludogorets	10	+14	26
4	CSKA 1948	12	+12	25
5	Botev Plovdiv	12	−1	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	11	−2	17
7	Spartak Varna	12	−6	13
8	Slavia Sofia	11	0	11
9	Dunav Ruse	12	−6	11
10	Botev Vratsa	12	−11	10
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	12	−7	9
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	−8	8
13	Septemvri Sofia	11	−11	8
14	Cherno More Varna	11	−11	6