Septemvri Sofia v Dunav Ruse prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Septemvri Sofia 2–3 Dunav Ruse SEPTEMVRI SOFIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Septemvri Sofia win~~41%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.688

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.792

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Septemvri Sofia win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Septemvri Sofia 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
23′12′ and it is 0–0: Frantzety Herard on the scoresheet for Septemvri Sofia. 0–0 · 38–31–31
24′12′ and it is 1–0: Frantzety Herard on the scoresheet for Septemvri Sofia. 1–0 · 69–20–11
43′SUBSTITUTION · 41' Dunav Ruse · On: Bartosz Zelazowski · Off: George kitanov Corrected
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Septemvri Sofia win: 41% at kick-off, 69% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Septemvri Sofia win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Septemvri Sofia win: 41% at kick-off, 69% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Septemvri Sofia win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
45′Andre Liberal scores for Septemvri Sofia on 36′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Septemvri Sofia win: 41% at kick-off, 69% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Septemvri Sofia win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Septemvri Sofia win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
45′SECOND HALF Septemvri Sofia 2–0 Dunav Ruse
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Septemvri Sofia win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Septemvri Sofia win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Septemvri Sofia win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Septemvri Sofia win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dunav Ruse · On: Elie Sou · Off: Radoslav Apostolov Corrected
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dunav Ruse · On: Mario dilchovski · Off: Kyriakos Antoniou Corrected
48′Andre Liberal scores for Septemvri Sofia on 36′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Septemvri Sofia win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Septemvri Sofia win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
49′SECOND HALF Septemvri Sofia 2–0 Dunav Ruse
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Septemvri Sofia win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
56′PENALTY MISSED · 56' Septemvri Sofia
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Septemvri Sofia 2–1 Dunav Ruse · Andre Liberal
67′⚽ GOAL · 63' Septemvri Sofia 2–1 Dunav Ruse · Ilker Budinov
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Dunav Ruse · On: Vladan Vidaković · Off: Njomgang William Fonkeu Corrected
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Septemvri Sofia 2–2 Dunav Ruse · Ilker Budinov
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Septemvri Sofia 2–2 Dunav Ruse
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Septemvri Sofia 3–2 Dunav Ruse · Andre Alves
87′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Septemvri Sofia · On: Stoyan Stoichkov · Off: Pedro Igor Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Septemvri Sofia · On: nicolas fontaine · Off: Galin Ivanov Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Dunav Ruse · On: Bozhidar Chorbadzhiyski · Off: Ilker Budinov Corrected
87′⚽ GOAL · 85' Septemvri Sofia 2–2 Dunav Ruse
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Septemvri Sofia 2–3 Dunav Ruse · Andre Alves
96′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Septemvri Sofia · On: nicolas fontaine · Off: Galin Ivanov Corrected
96′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Dunav Ruse · On: Bozhidar Chorbadzhiyski · Off: Ilker Budinov Corrected
96′⚽ GOAL · 90' Septemvri Sofia 2–3 Dunav Ruse · Alexander Valiño Navasal
96′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Septemvri Sofia
FTFULL TIME Septemvri Sofia 2–3 Dunav Ruse
FTSeptemvri Sofia 2–3 Dunav Ruse · Septemvri Sofia win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Septemvri Sofia win41%

Draw26%

Dunav Ruse win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenueDragalevtsi Stadium,

Line-ups

Septemvri Sofia

4-2-3-1

Dunav Ruse

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Septemvri Sofia

Dunav Ruse

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Septemvri Sofia	10	−10	8
14	Dunav Ruse	10	−9	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Septemvri Sofia

4-2-3-1

12 Ivanov Vladimir

8 B. Penchev

26 V. Ozornwafor

4 M. Hristov

15 P. Gospodinov

5 Y. Baurenski

6 P. Ferreira

29 F. Herard

33 G. Ivanov

19 Pedro Igor

27 A. Liberal

Coach · Simao Freitas

Substitutes

10 · N. Iliev

24 · Z. A. Atanasov

17 · N. Fontaine

28 · S. Stoichkov

11 · A. Dzhamov

2 · S. Vulikic

16 · V. Mihaylov

14 · A. Vutov

21 · V. Dimitrov

30 · V. Dobrev

20 · B. Tomovski

Dunav Ruse

Formation not confirmed

33 G. Kitanov

39 A. Alves

4 J. C. Cabarcas Perez

5 K. Antoniou

51 I. Budinov

14 R. Apostolov

10 K. Boychev

17 W. Fonkeu

88 D. Todorov

9 A. Valino

23 J. Saint-Louis

Coach · –

Substitutes

24 · S. Gavrilov

2 · M. Dilchovski

93 · B. Chorbadzhiyski

44 · V. Vidakovic

78 · E. Sou

6 · S. Yovkov

18 · I. Keita

77 · A. Simeonov

1 · B. Zelazowski

19 · S. Stefanov

Our number · septemvri sofia winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

41% The market42%

Us41%

~~Market~~42%

We make Septemvri Sofia a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · septemvri sofia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Septemvri Sofia win	41%	42%	−2
Draw	26%	30%	−3
Dunav Ruse win	33%	28%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	48%	42%	+6
Both teams to score	52%	49%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	73%	67%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	27%	23%	+3
Septemvri Sofia or draw	67%	72%	−5
Septemvri Sofia clean sheet	30%	–	–
Dunav Ruse clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.8 8.9 5.5 2.3 1 10.2 12.4 7.4 3.1 2 7.1 8.4 5.1 2.1 3 3.4 3.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Septemvri Sofia down, Dunav Ruse across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,451 First League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Septemvri Sofia at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dunav Ruse away: 1.20 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Septemvri Sofia, 1.21 for Dunav Ruse. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in First League

SEPTEMVRI SOFIA

WWDLLL1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 0–3

DUNAV RUSE

WLDLLD2–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	9	+17	25
2	CSKA Sofia	10	+17	24
3	Ludogorets	9	+9	23
4	CSKA 1948	10	+9	22
5	Botev Plovdiv	11	+3	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	10	+3	17
7	Spartak Varna	11	−4	13
8	Slavia Sofia	11	0	11
9	Botev Vratsa	11	−11	9
10	Lokomotiv Sofia	11	−7	8
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	−8	8
12	Septemvri Sofia	10	−10	8
13	Cherno More Varna	10	−9	6
14	Dunav Ruse	10	−9	5