Ludogorets v CSKA 1948 prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LudogoretsDrawCSKA 1948

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ludogorets 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ludogorets are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ludogorets 58%, draw 24%, CSKA 1948 18%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Ludogorets v CSKA 1948Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Ludogorets win58%

Draw24%

CSKA 1948 win18%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueHuvepharma Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ludogorets

CSKA 1948

14Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

Last match: 23 Oct · the Bulgarian First League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Ludogorets	10	+14	26
4	CSKA 1948	12	+12	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ludogorets winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Ludogorets a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ludogorets v CSKA 1948~~1.75 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 15 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 26 v 25~~3 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ludogorets win	58%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
CSKA 1948 win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Ludogorets or draw	82%	–	–
Ludogorets clean sheet	43%	–	–
CSKA 1948 clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 7.8 6.2 2.8 1 12.8 11.1 4.7 2 11.2 9.5 4.1 3 6.6 5.5 2.4 4 2.9 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ludogorets down, CSKA 1948 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,458 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.6% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ludogorets at home: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). CSKA 1948 away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Ludogorets, 0.86 for CSKA 1948. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CSK 1–0 LUD · LUD 1–2 CSK · LUD 3–0 CSK · CSK 5–4 LUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 15 Aug

LUDOGORETS

WDDWWW2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 5–0

CSKA 1948

WLWWLW2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	10	+19	28
2	CSKA Sofia	11	+18	27
3	Ludogorets	10	+14	26
4	CSKA 1948	12	+12	25
5	Botev Plovdiv	12	−1	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	11	−2	17
7	Spartak Varna	12	−6	13
8	Slavia Sofia	11	0	11
9	Dunav Ruse	12	−6	11
10	Botev Vratsa	12	−11	10
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	12	−7	9
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	−8	8
13	Septemvri Sofia	11	−11	8
14	Cherno More Varna	11	−11	6