Ludogorets v Arda Kardzhali prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 20:30

Ludogorets 5–0 Arda Kardzhali LUDOGORETS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ludogorets win~~60%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.243

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.207

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 40 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ludogorets win at 60%.
0′KICK-OFF Ludogorets v Arda Kardzhali
1′Much as we predicted: Ludogorets was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–23–16
5′Much as we predicted: Ludogorets was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–24–16
17′⚽ GOAL · 18' Ludogorets 0–0 Arda Kardzhali
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Ludogorets 1–0 Arda Kardzhali
18′A goal for Ludogorets on 18′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–12–4
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Ludogorets win: 60% at kick-off, 83% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Ludogorets win: 60% at kick-off, 60% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Ludogorets win: 60% at kick-off, 60% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Ludogorets win: 60% at kick-off, 83% now
20′We published Ludogorets at 60%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–4
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Ludogorets win: 60% at kick-off, 60% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Ludogorets win: 60% at kick-off, 83% now
20′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Ludogorets
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 84–13–4
30′🟥 RED CARD · 30' Ludogorets
31′🟥 RED CARD · 30' Arda Kardzhali
32′A red card for Arda Kardzhali on 30′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 84–13–3
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Ludogorets win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Ludogorets win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Caio Vidal Rocha · Ludogorets
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Ludogorets win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Ludogorets 2–0 Arda Kardzhali · Caio Vidal Rocha
43′⚽ GOAL · 44' Ludogorets 2–0 Arda Kardzhali
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Ludogorets win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ludogorets win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
45′SECOND HALF Ludogorets 3–0 Arda Kardzhali
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Ludogorets 3–0 Arda Kardzhali · Caio Vidal Rocha
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ludogorets · On: Aguibou Camara · Off: petar stanic
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ludogorets · On: Amir Hadžiahmetović · Off: Deroy Duarte
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Vyacheslav Velev · Arda Kardzhali
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Ludogorets 3–0 Arda Kardzhali
50′SECOND HALF Ludogorets 3–0 Arda Kardzhali
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Ludogorets 4–0 Arda Kardzhali · Bernard Tekpetey
55′⚽ GOAL · 56' Ludogorets 4–0 Arda Kardzhali
59′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Ludogorets · On: Erick Marcus dos Santos Oliveira do Carmo · Off: Bernard Tekpetey
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Arda Kardzhali · On: Preslav·Bachev · Off: Antonio Vutov
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Arda Kardzhali · On: Atanas Kabov · Off: Svetoslav Kovachev
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Arda Kardzhali · On: Birsent Karagaren · Off: Stanislav Ivanov
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Viktor Lyubenov · Arda Kardzhali
77′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ludogorets · On: Nathan Fernandes · Off: Caio Vidal Rocha
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ludogorets · On: Ivajlo Čočev · Off: Rwan Philipe Rodrigues de Souza Cruz
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Arda Kardzhali · On: Derick Fernando da Silva · Off: Viktor Lyubenov
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Ludogorets 5–0 Arda Kardzhali · Rwan Philipe Rodrigues de Souza Cruz
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Ludogorets 5–0 Arda Kardzhali
FTFULL TIME Ludogorets 5–0 Arda Kardzhali
FTLudogorets 5–0 Arda Kardzhali · Ludogorets win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

Ludogorets win60%

Draw24%

Arda Kardzhali win16%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 18:00

VenueHuvepharma Arena

RefereeKristiyan Kolev

Line-ups

Ludogorets

4-2-3-1

Arda Kardzhali

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ludogorets

Arda Kardzhali

28Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Ludogorets	9	+9	23
6	Arda Kardzhali	10	+3	17

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ludogorets

4-2-3-1

39 H. Bonmann

42 S. Shishkov

4 Hossam Abdelmaguid

15 E. Kurtulus

2 J. Andersson

6 I. Zhelizko

23 Deroy Duarte

37 B. Tekpetey

14 P. Stanić

11 Caio Vidal

12 Rwan Cruz

Coach · I. Jovičević

Substitutes

16 · Nathan Fernandes

3 · A. Nedyalkov

44 · O. Rekik

22 · M. Polendakov

5 · G. Terziev

20 · A. Camara

18 · I. Chochev

77 · Erick Marcus

13 · I. Grbić

8 · A. Hadžiahmetović

26 · F. Kaloč

Arda Kardzhali

4-2-3-1

1 A. Gospodinov

6 V. Popov

24 M. Paskalev

5 V. Lyubenov

35 D. Velkovski

80 L. Kotev

21 V. Velev

10 S. Kovachev

39 A. Vutov

91 S. Ivanov

9 G. Nikolov

Coach · A. Tunchev

Substitutes

18 · S. Vasilev

70 · Nabil Makni

99 · B. Karagaren

11 · A. Kabov

22 · Y. Georgiev

2 · Derick Fernando da Silva

16 · P. Bachev

26 · B. Akandzha

44 · Adama Ardile Traoré

Our number · ludogorets winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

60% The market63%

Us60%

~~Market~~63%

We make Ludogorets a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ludogorets win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 58% to 63% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ludogorets win	60%	63%	−3
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Arda Kardzhali win	16%	14%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	46%	51%	−5
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	71%	74%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	30%	−6
Ludogorets or draw	84%	86%	−3
Ludogorets clean sheet	46%	–	–
Arda Kardzhali clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 8.4 6.2 2.5 1 13.9 10.9 4.2 2 12.1 9.3 3.6 3 7.1 5.4 2.1 4 3.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ludogorets down, Arda Kardzhali across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,454 First League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 3.17 goals a meeting; 7 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ludogorets at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Arda Kardzhali away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Ludogorets, 0.78 for Arda Kardzhali. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 12

~~Both scored~~7 of 12

~~Last meetings~~ARD 1–0 LUD · LUD 2–3 ARD · LUD 2–2 ARD · ARD 1–1 LUD

Form · last six in First League

LUDOGORETS

WWDDWW3–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

ARDA KARDZHALI

WWWLLD3–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	10	+19	28
2	CSKA Sofia	11	+18	27
3	Ludogorets	9	+9	23
4	CSKA 1948	11	+8	22
5	Botev Plovdiv	11	+3	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	10	+3	17
7	Spartak Varna	11	−4	13
8	Slavia Sofia	11	0	11
9	Botev Vratsa	11	−11	9
10	Lokomotiv Sofia	11	−7	8
11	Dunav Ruse	11	−8	8
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	−8	8
13	Septemvri Sofia	11	−11	8
14	Cherno More Varna	11	−11	6