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Lokomotiv Sofia v Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Lokomotiv Sofia

1–1Full time

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

First League · SAT 10 OCT · Lokomotiv Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:06

Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv LOKOMOTIV SOFIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Lokomotiv Sofia win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.777

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.776

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lokomotiv Sofia win at 40%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Lokomotiv Sofia 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
2′KICK-OFF Lokomotiv Sofia v Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Lokomotiv Sofia 0–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
33′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Angel Lyaskov · Lokomotiv Sofia
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv · Ryan Leijten
38′⚽ GOAL · 33' Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv · Mohamed Medfai
45′SECOND HALF Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
47′SUBSTITUTION · 50' Lokomotiv Plovdiv · On: Parvizdzhon Umarbaev · Off: Efe Ali Corrected
48′⚽ GOAL · 8' Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv · Ryan Leijten
48′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Angel Lyaskov · Lokomotiv Sofia
48′⚽ GOAL · 33' Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv · Mohamed Medfai
56′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Lokomotiv Plovdiv
65′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Lokomotiv Plovdiv · On: ali dalil · Off: Christ Longville Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Lokomotiv Plovdiv · On: Julien Lamy · Off: Ryan Leijten Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Lokomotiv Sofia · On: Joyce Kati Katulondi · Off: Ante Aralica Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Lokomotiv Sofia · On: Ivan Yordanov · Off: Mohamed Medfai Corrected
65′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Lokomotiv Sofia
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Lokomotiv Plovdiv
78′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Kaloyan Kostov · Lokomotiv Sofia
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Lokomotiv Plovdiv · On: Anton Fase · Off: Todor Pavlov Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Lokomotiv Plovdiv · On: Miha·Trdan · Off: Julian Iliev Corrected
78′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Lokomotiv Sofia
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Lokomotiv Sofia · On: Erol Dost · Off: Krasimir Stanoev Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Lokomotiv Sofia · On: Reyan Daskalov · Off: Kaloyan Kostov Corrected
FTFULL TIME Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
FTLokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv · Lokomotiv Sofia win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Lokomotiv Sofia win40%

Draw28%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:30

Venue · Lokomotiv Stadium

Referee · Piskov·Gero

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Lokomotiv Sofia

4-2-3-1

99 M. Velichkov

14 A. Lyaskov

3 K. Kostov

91 R. Bidounga

6 Eiro

31 K. Stanoev

20 D. Kostadinov

7 S. Delev

11 A. Taoui

16 M. Medfai

29 A. Aralica

Coach · Lyuboslav Penev

Substitutes

24 · A. Lyubenov

22 · R. Daskalov

44 · B. Katsarov

17 · M. Papazov

23 · D. Ogaga

5 · E. Dost

8 · I. Yordanov

26 · K. Miloshev

71 · N. Penev

18 · K. Kati

9 · G. Minchev

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

4-2-3-1

1 B. Milosavljevic

2 A. Cova

4 A. Chindris

94 Matheus Brito

5 T. Pavlov

22 I. Ivanov

12 E. Ali

29 C. Longville

10 Y. Iliev

11 R. Leijten

19 J. Burban

Coach · Dusan Kosic

Substitutes

40 · P. Zovko

9 · A. Velev

17 · A. Fase

3 · D. Ali

99 · J. Lamy

44 · M. Petrovic

6 · M. Trdan

39 · P. Umarbaev

26 · D. Kirashki

31 · D. Mrankov

33 · Y. Dzhelepov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lokomotiv Sofia

4-2-3-1

99 M. Velichkov

14 A. Lyaskov

3 K. Kostov

91 R. Bidounga

6 Eiro

31 K. Stanoev

20 D. Kostadinov

7 S. Delev

11 A. Taoui

16 M. Medfai

29 A. Aralica

Coach · Lyuboslav Penev

Substitutes

24 · A. Lyubenov

22 · R. Daskalov

44 · B. Katsarov

17 · M. Papazov

23 · D. Ogaga

5 · E. Dost

8 · I. Yordanov

26 · K. Miloshev

71 · N. Penev

18 · K. Kati

9 · G. Minchev

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

4-2-3-1

1 B. Milosavljevic

2 A. Cova

4 A. Chindris

94 Matheus Brito

5 T. Pavlov

22 I. Ivanov

12 E. Ali

29 C. Longville

10 Y. Iliev

11 R. Leijten

19 J. Burban

Coach · Dusan Kosic

Substitutes

40 · P. Zovko

9 · A. Velev

17 · A. Fase

3 · D. Ali

99 · J. Lamy

44 · M. Petrovic

6 · M. Trdan

39 · P. Umarbaev

26 · D. Kirashki

31 · D. Mrankov

33 · Y. Dzhelepov

Our number · lokomotiv sofia winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Lokomotiv Sofia a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lokomotiv sofia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lokomotiv Sofia win	40%	45%	−5
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win	31%	26%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	42%	43%	−1
Both teams to score	48%	48%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	68%	68%	0
Over 3.5 goals	21%	23%	−2
Lokomotiv Sofia or draw	69%	74%	−6
Lokomotiv Sofia clean sheet	34%	–	–
Lokomotiv Plovdiv clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.9 10.1 5.6 2.1 1 11.8 13.1 7.0 2.6 2 7.6 8.2 4.4 3 3.3 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lokomotiv Sofia down, Lokomotiv Plovdiv across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,448 First League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.2% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.18 goals a meeting; 4 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lokomotiv Sofia at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lokomotiv Plovdiv away: 0.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Lokomotiv Sofia, 1.09 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:07. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.18

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 11

~~Both scored~~6 of 11

~~Last meetings~~LOK 1–0 LOK · LOK 2–2 LOK · LOK 1–1 LOK · LOK 0–1 LOK

Form · last six in First League

LOKOMOTIV SOFIA

LDLDLW1–3 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–0

LOKOMOTIV PLOVDIV

LLLWLD1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	9	+17	25
2	CSKA Sofia	10	+17	24
3	Ludogorets	9	+9	23
4	CSKA 1948	10	+9	22
5	Arda Kardzhali	10	+3	17
6	Botev Plovdiv	10	+2	16
7	Slavia Sofia	10	+1	11
8	Spartak Varna	10	−5	10
9	Botev Vratsa	10	−10	9
10	Septemvri Sofia	10	−10	8
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	10	−7	7
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10	−8	7
13	Cherno More Varna	10	−9	6
14	Dunav Ruse	10	−9	5