Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Slavia Sofia prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Lokomotiv PlovdivDrawSlavia Sofia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lokomotiv Plovdiv are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 40%, draw 31%, Slavia Sofia 29%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Slavia SofiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Lokomotiv Plovdiv win40%

Draw31%

Slavia Sofia win29%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Lokomotiv

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Slavia Sofia

5Days since last match9

Last match: 21 Oct · Pro Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Slavia Sofia	11	0	11
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	−8	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lokomotiv plovdiv winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market43%

Us40%

~~Market~~43%

We make Lokomotiv Plovdiv a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Slavia Sofia~~1.13 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 24 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 11~~12 v 8

~~The market · Lokomotiv Plovdiv win~~43% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lokomotiv Plovdiv win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win	40%	43%	−3
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Slavia Sofia win	29%	27%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	33%	39%	−6
Both teams to score	40%	46%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	60%	64%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	15%	21%	−6
Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw	71%	73%	−2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv clean sheet	41%	–	–
Slavia Sofia clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.5%

0123450 13.5 11.7 5.4 1 14.5 13.4 6.0 2 8.3 7.4 3.4 3 3.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lokomotiv Plovdiv down, Slavia Sofia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,458 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.6% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Slavia Sofia away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 0.91 for Slavia Sofia. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SLA 0–2 LOK · LOK 2–1 SLA · SLA 1–2 LOK · LOK 0–1 SLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 24 Aug

LOKOMOTIV PLOVDIV

LLWLDD0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

SLAVIA SOFIA

DLWDLL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	10	+19	28
2	CSKA Sofia	11	+18	27
3	Ludogorets	10	+14	26
4	CSKA 1948	12	+12	25
5	Botev Plovdiv	12	−1	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	11	−2	17
7	Spartak Varna	12	−6	13
8	Slavia Sofia	11	0	11
9	Dunav Ruse	12	−6	11
10	Botev Vratsa	12	−11	10
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	12	−7	9
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	−8	8
13	Septemvri Sofia	11	−11	8
14	Cherno More Varna	11	−11	6