Levski Sofia v CSKA Sofia prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Levski SofiaDrawCSKA Sofia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Levski Sofia 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Levski Sofia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Levski Sofia 48%, draw 28%, CSKA Sofia 24%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Levski Sofia v CSKA SofiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Levski Sofia win48%

Draw28%

CSKA Sofia win24%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueVivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Levski Sofia

CSKA Sofia

9Days since last match9

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · levski sofia winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Levski Sofia a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Levski Sofia v CSKA Sofia~~1.40 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 22 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 28 v 27~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Levski Sofia win	48%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
CSKA Sofia win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Levski Sofia or draw	76%	–	–
Levski Sofia clean sheet	40%	–	–
CSKA Sofia clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 10.4 8.9 4.2 1 13.7 12.7 5.7 2 9.6 8.7 4.0 3 4.5 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Levski Sofia down, CSKA Sofia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,458 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.6% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Levski Sofia at home: 2.67 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). CSKA Sofia away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Levski Sofia, 0.91 for CSKA Sofia. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LEV 2–4 CSK · LEV 2–0 CSK · CSK 1–3 LEV · CSK 1–1 LEV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 22 Aug

LEVSKI SOFIA

WWWWDW6–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

CSKA SOFIA

WDWWDW3–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	10	+19	28
2	CSKA Sofia	11	+18	27
3	Ludogorets	10	+14	26
4	CSKA 1948	12	+12	25
5	Botev Plovdiv	12	−1	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	11	−2	17
7	Spartak Varna	12	−6	13
8	Slavia Sofia	11	0	11
9	Dunav Ruse	12	−6	11
10	Botev Vratsa	12	−11	10
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	12	−7	9
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	−8	8
13	Septemvri Sofia	11	−11	8
14	Cherno More Varna	11	−11	6