Dunav Ruse v Spartak Varna prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Dunav Ruse 2–0 Spartak Varna DUNAV RUSE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dunav Ruse win~~44%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.473

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.556

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dunav Ruse win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dunav Ruse was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–31
1′KICK-OFF Dunav Ruse v Spartak Varna
17′We published Dunav Ruse at 44%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–11
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Dunav Ruse 1–0 Spartak Varna
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Dunav Ruse win: 44% at kick-off, 70% now
18′A goal for Dunav Ruse on 17′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–19–11
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 71–19–9
40′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Spartak Varna
40′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Spartak Varna
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Dunav Ruse win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
45′HALF-TIME Dunav Ruse 1–0 Spartak Varna
46′SECOND HALF Dunav Ruse 1–0 Spartak Varna
49′We published Dunav Ruse at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
50′🟨 YELLOW · 33' angel gomes · Spartak Varna
50′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Sámuel Major · Spartak Varna
65′We published Dunav Ruse at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
65′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Spartak Varna · On: Boubacar Hanne · Off: Joao Lopes
65′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Spartak Varna · On: boris ivanov · Off: anton ivanov
65′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Alexander Valiño Navasal · Dunav Ruse
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Dunav Ruse win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
74′We published Dunav Ruse at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
76′We published Dunav Ruse at 44%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Dunav Ruse 2–0 Spartak Varna
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Dunav Ruse win: 44% at kick-off, 99% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Dunav Ruse · On: Elisee Sou · Off: jordan louis saint
81′76′: Radoslav Apostolov on the scoresheet for Dunav Ruse, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Spartak Varna · On: Deyan Lozev · Off: David Valverde
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Spartak Varna · On: Tsvetelin Chunchukov · Off: angel gomes
81′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Dunav Ruse
82′We published Dunav Ruse at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Spartak Varna · On: mikhailov tsvetoslav marinov · Off: ricardo sousa
92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Dunav Ruse · On: Vladan Vidaković · Off: Kristiyan Boychev
92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Dunav Ruse · On: Ibrahim Keita · Off: Alexander Valiño Navasal
FTFULL TIME Dunav Ruse 2–0 Spartak Varna
FTDunav Ruse 2–0 Spartak Varna · Dunav Ruse win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dunav Ruse are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dunav Ruse 44%, draw 25%, Spartak Varna 31%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Dunav Ruse v Spartak VarnaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dunav Ruse win44%

Draw25%

Spartak Varna win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueGradski Stadium

Line-ups

Dunav Ruse

4-2-3-1

Spartak Varna

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dunav Ruse

Spartak Varna

7Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

Last match: 19 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Spartak Varna	11	−4	13
10	Dunav Ruse	11	−8	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dunav Ruse

4-2-3-1

33 G. Kitanov

39 Andre Alves

88 D. Todorov

51 I. Budinov

4 J. Cabarcas

5 K. Antoniou

10 K. Boychev

14 R. Apostolov

17 N. Fonkeu

9 Álex Valiño

23 Jordan Layn Saint-Louis

Coach · G. Chilikov

Substitutes

93 · B. Chorbadzhiyski

2 · M. Dilchovski

24 · S. Gavrilov

18 · I. Keïta

77 · A. Simeonov

78 · Elisee Sou

19 · S. Stefanov

44 · V. Vidaković

6 · S. Yovkov

1 · B. Żelazowski

Spartak Varna

4-2-3-1

23 P. Iliev

44 A. Granchov

76 David Valverde

5 D. Krastev

29 Z. Tindano

6 José Ricardo Gomes Sousa

19 S. Major

77 A. Ivanov

11 Boubacar Hanne

90 C. Okoh

10 J. Lopes

Coach · V. Petrov

Substitutes

45 · J. Tshitoku

16 · Edson Silva

14 · Daniel Pavlov

72 · Vasco Oliveira

20 · D. Lozev

4 · B. Ivanov

9 · T. Chunchukov

7 · Bua

1 · Pedro Victor

Our number · dunav ruse winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market39%

Us44%

~~Market~~39%

We make Dunav Ruse a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dunav Ruse v Spartak Varna~~1.52 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 13~~10 v 7

~~The market · Dunav Ruse win~~39% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dunav Ruse win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dunav Ruse win	44%	39%	+5
Draw	25%	29%	−4
Spartak Varna win	31%	32%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	51%	46%	+5
Both teams to score	54%	52%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	70%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	30%	26%	+4
Dunav Ruse or draw	69%	68%	+1
Dunav Ruse clean sheet	30%	–	–
Spartak Varna clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.9 7.8 4.9 2.0 1 9.7 11.9 7.1 3.0 2 7.4 8.8 5.4 2.2 3 3.8 4.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dunav Ruse down, Spartak Varna across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,456 First League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dunav Ruse at home: 0.80 scored, 1.80 conceded a game (last 5). Spartak Varna away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Dunav Ruse, 1.22 for Spartak Varna. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 11:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SPA 3–1 DUN · DUN 0–1 SPA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 21 Aug

DUNAV RUSE

LDLLDW1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 3–2

SPARTAK VARNA

LDDDLW0–6 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	10	+19	28
2	CSKA Sofia	11	+18	27
3	Ludogorets	10	+14	26
4	CSKA 1948	12	+12	25
5	Botev Plovdiv	12	−1	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	11	−2	17
7	Spartak Varna	11	−4	13
8	Slavia Sofia	11	0	11
9	Botev Vratsa	11	−11	9
10	Dunav Ruse	11	−8	8
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	−8	8
12	Lokomotiv Sofia	11	−7	8
13	Septemvri Sofia	11	−11	8
14	Cherno More Varna	11	−11	6