CSKA Sofia v Ludogorets prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CSKA SofiaDrawLudogorets

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30

Before kick-off · Match result · CSKA Sofia 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with CSKA Sofia just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: CSKA Sofia 36%, draw 29%, Ludogorets 35%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on CSKA Sofia v LudogoretsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

CSKA Sofia win36%

Draw29%

Ludogorets win35%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueBalgarska Armiya Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CSKA Sofia

Ludogorets

4Days since last match9

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 17 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	CSKA Sofia	11	+18	27
3	Ludogorets	10	+14	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cska sofia winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

36% The market39%

Us36%

~~Market~~39%

We make CSKA Sofia a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CSKA Sofia v Ludogorets~~1.16 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 15 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 27 v 26~~2 v 3

~~The market · CSKA Sofia win~~39% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CSKA Sofia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CSKA Sofia win	36%	39%	−3
Draw	29%	29%	0
Ludogorets win	35%	32%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	40%	48%	−8
Both teams to score	47%	54%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	67%	72%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	20%	28%	−8
CSKA Sofia or draw	65%	68%	−3
CSKA Sofia clean sheet	32%	–	–
Ludogorets clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.4 11.2 6.5 2.5 1 11.5 13.2 7.4 2.9 2 6.8 7.6 4.3 3 2.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CSKA Sofia down, Ludogorets across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,456 First League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CSKA Sofia at home: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ludogorets away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for CSKA Sofia, 1.14 for Ludogorets. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LUD 1–0 CSK · CSK 1–0 LUD · CSK 0–0 LUD · LUD 1–2 CSK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 15 Aug

CSKA SOFIA

WDWWDW3–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 3–2

LUDOGORETS

WDDWWW2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	10	+19	28
2	CSKA Sofia	11	+18	27
3	Ludogorets	10	+14	26
4	CSKA 1948	12	+12	25
5	Botev Plovdiv	12	−1	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	11	−2	17
7	Spartak Varna	12	−6	13
8	Slavia Sofia	11	0	11
9	Dunav Ruse	12	−6	11
10	Botev Vratsa	11	−11	9
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	−8	8
12	Lokomotiv Sofia	11	−7	8
13	Septemvri Sofia	11	−11	8
14	Cherno More Varna	11	−11	6