CSKA 1948 v CSKA Sofia prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

CSKA 1948 2–3 CSKA Sofia CSKA SOFIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CSKA Sofia win~~38%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.573

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.401

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CSKA Sofia win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: CSKA Sofia was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 33–29–38
3′Much as we predicted: CSKA Sofia was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 33–29–38
22′19′ and it is 0–1: CSKA Sofia have scored. 0–1 · 10–21–69
27′19′ and it is 0–1: Bruno Jordão on the scoresheet for CSKA Sofia. 0–1 · 9–21–70
43′CSKA Sofia ahead on 28′ through Ioannis Pittas. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
45′We published CSKA Sofia at 38%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
46′CSKA Sofia ahead on 28′ through Ioannis Pittas. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
66′Elias Correa Franco scores for CSKA 1948 on 56′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 3–17–81
69′Elias Correa Franco scores for CSKA 1948 on 56′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 18–63–20
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was CSKA Sofia win 20%)
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' CSKA Sofia win: 38% at kick-off, 81% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' CSKA Sofia win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 17%)
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' CSKA Sofia win: 38% at kick-off, 20% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' CSKA Sofia win: 38% at kick-off, 20% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was CSKA Sofia win 20%)
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' CSKA Sofia win: 38% at kick-off, 81% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' CSKA Sofia win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 17%)
89′68′ and it is 2–3: Atanas Iliev on the scoresheet for CSKA 1948. 2–3 · 0–1–99
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' CSKA Sofia win: 38% at kick-off, 81% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' CSKA Sofia win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 17%)
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' CSKA Sofia win: 38% at kick-off, 20% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was CSKA Sofia win 20%)
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' CSKA 1948 2–3 CSKA Sofia · Atanas Iliev
89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' CSKA 1948 · On: Petar Vitanov · Off: Moataz Zemzemi Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' CSKA Sofia · On: James Eto'o · Off: Max Ebong Corrected
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' CSKA Sofia win: 38% at kick-off, 99% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' CSKA Sofia win: 38% at kick-off, 81% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' CSKA 1948 2–3 CSKA Sofia · Bruno Jordão
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' CSKA Sofia win: 38% at kick-off, 99% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' CSKA Sofia win: 38% at kick-off, 81% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' CSKA Sofia win: 38% at kick-off, 99% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' CSKA Sofia win: 38% at kick-off, 81% now
93′🟥 RED CARD · 93' CSKA Sofia
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' CSKA Sofia win: 38% at kick-off, 81% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' CSKA Sofia win: 38% at kick-off, 99% now
93′SUBSTITUTION · 91' CSKA 1948 · On: Florian Krebs · Off: Elias Correa Franco Corrected
FTFULL TIME CSKA 1948 2–3 CSKA Sofia
FTCSKA 1948 2–3 CSKA Sofia · CSKA Sofia win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

CSKA 1948 win33%

Draw29%

CSKA Sofia win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:00

VenueBistritsa Stadium

Line-ups

CSKA 1948

4-2-3-1

CSKA Sofia

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

CSKA 1948

CSKA Sofia

23Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	CSKA Sofia	10	+17	24
4	CSKA 1948	10	+9	22

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

CSKA 1948

4-2-3-1

31 A. Bozhev

6 Emerson Barbosa

3 L. Dvali

4 A. Hoffmann

96 D. Grivic

8 M. Zemzemi

33 H. Cuellar

11 G. Rusev

30 J. Meyer

77 E. Franco

93 M. Diallo

Coach · Ognyan Mladenov

Substitutes

34 · P. Vitanov

23 · F. Krebs

70 · K. Iliev

71 · D. Tarasenko

1 · P. Marinov

7 · Berna

14 · K. Strinski

10 · B. Tsonev

9 · A. Iliev

CSKA Sofia

4-4-2

21 F. Lapoukhov

2 Pastor

14 T. Ivanov

32 F. Rodriguez

17 A. Martino

7 M. Ebong

6 B. Jordao

8 S. Sensi

38 Leo Pereira

10 J. Zwarts

28 I. Pittas

Coach · Markus Gisdol

Substitutes

25 · D. Evtimov

94 · I. Solet

91 · A. Tunchev

9 · L. Godoy

99 · J. Eto'o

37 · B. Cotter

67 · C. Itu

19 · A. Yordanov

30 · P. Panayotov

4 · D. Almeida

11 · M. Brahimi

Our number · cska sofia winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

38% The market48%

Us38%

~~Market~~48%

We make CSKA Sofia a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cska sofia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CSKA 1948 win	33%	24%	+9
Draw	29%	27%	+1
CSKA Sofia win	38%	48%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	40%	49%	−8
Both teams to score	46%	53%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	67%	72%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	20%	29%	−9
CSKA 1948 or draw	62%	52%	+10
CSKA 1948 clean sheet	30%	–	–
CSKA Sofia clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.4 11.9 7.2 2.9 1 10.8 13.2 7.8 3.2 2 6.0 7.2 4.3 3 2.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CSKA 1948 down, CSKA Sofia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,451 First League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 2.43 goals a meeting; 5 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CSKA 1948 at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). CSKA Sofia away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for CSKA 1948, 1.20 for CSKA Sofia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.43

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 14

~~Both scored~~7 of 14

~~Last meetings~~CSK 1–1 CSK · CSK 0–1 CSK · CSK 0–2 CSK · CSK 0–1 CSK

Form · last six in First League

CSKA 1948

WLWLWW4–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

CSKA SOFIA

WWDWWD5–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	9	+17	25
2	CSKA Sofia	10	+17	24
3	Ludogorets	9	+9	23
4	CSKA 1948	10	+9	22
5	Botev Plovdiv	11	+3	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	10	+3	17
7	Spartak Varna	11	−4	13
8	Slavia Sofia	11	0	11
9	Botev Vratsa	11	−11	9
10	Lokomotiv Sofia	11	−7	8
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	−8	8
12	Septemvri Sofia	10	−10	8
13	Cherno More Varna	10	−9	6
14	Dunav Ruse	10	−9	5