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CSKA 1948 v Botev Plovdiv

CSKA 1948
4–0Full time
Botev Plovdiv

First League · FRI 23 OCT · Bistritsa Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31
CSKA 1948 4–0 Botev Plovdiv CSKA 1948 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said CSKA 1948 win51%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.362
The market’s Brier score0.422

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said CSKA 1948 win at 51%.
  2. 0′KICK-OFF CSKA 1948 v Botev Plovdiv
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: CSKA 1948 was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–24
  4. 6′🟨 YELLOW · 5' CSKA 1948
  5. 12′We published CSKA 1948 at 51%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
  6. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' CSKA 1948 1–0 Botev Plovdiv
  7. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' CSKA 1948 win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
  8. 16′13′: Elias Correa Franco on the scoresheet for CSKA 1948, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
  9. 28′We published CSKA 1948 at 51%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
  10. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' CSKA 1948 2–0 Botev Plovdiv
  11. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' CSKA 1948 win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
  12. 31′CSKA 1948 find the net on 29′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  13. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' CSKA 1948
  14. 41′We published CSKA 1948 at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  15. 43′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  16. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' CSKA 1948 3–0 Botev Plovdiv
  17. 45′SECOND HALF CSKA 1948 3–0 Botev Plovdiv
  18. 46′A goal for CSKA 1948 on 44′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  19. 46′HALF-TIME CSKA 1948 3–0 Botev Plovdiv
  20. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' CSKA 1948 · On: Atanas Iliev · Off: Petar Vitanov
  21. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Botev Plovdiv · On: Carlos Meotti · Off: velian vidolov
  22. 55′We published CSKA 1948 at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  23. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 62' CSKA 1948
  24. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Botev Plovdiv
  25. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Botev Plovdiv · On: Stanislav Shopov · Off: Asen Chandarov
  26. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Botev Plovdiv · On: Georgi Milanov · Off: Mauro Rodrigues
  27. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 69' CSKA 1948 · On: Benaissa Benamar · Off: Andre Hoffmann
  28. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' CSKA 1948 · On: Dragan Grivić · Off: danilo terasenko
  29. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' CSKA 1948 · On: Frederic Maciel · Off: Elias Correa Franco
  30. 84′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  31. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' CSKA 1948 4–0 Botev Plovdiv
  32. 85′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  33. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' CSKA 1948 4–1 Botev Plovdiv
  34. 86′A goal for CSKA 1948 on 84′. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  35. 87′GOAL DISALLOWED · 87' Botev Plovdiv
  36. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Botev Plovdiv · On: Bogdan Kostov · Off: Vladimir Mendes
  37. FTFULL TIME CSKA 1948 4–0 Botev Plovdiv
  38. FTCSKA 1948 4–0 Botev Plovdiv · CSKA 1948 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CSKA 1948 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CSKA 1948 51%, draw 25%, Botev Plovdiv 24%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on CSKA 1948 v Botev PlovdivBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

CSKA 1948 win51%
Draw25%
Botev Plovdiv win24%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueBistritsa Stadium

Line-ups

CSKA 1948

4-2-3-1

Botev Plovdiv

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CSKA 1948

Botev Plovdiv

7Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4CSKA 194811+822
5Botev Plovdiv11+319

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CSKA 1948

4-2-3-1

31 A. Bozhev

4 A. Hoffmann

96 D. Grivić

6 Emerson

3 L. Dvali

33 H. Cuellar

30 J. Meyer

8 M. Zemzemi

77 Elias Franco

11 G. Rusev

93 M. Diallo

Coach · Ognyan Mladenov

Substitutes

34 · P. Vitanov

10 · B. Tsonev

71 · danilo terasenko

14 · K. Strinski

1 · P. Marinov

23 · F. Krebs

70 · K. Iliev

9 · A. Iliev

7 · Berna

Botev Plovdiv

4-2-3-1

29 D. Naumov

27 B. Hein

4 N. Soldo

87 S. Petrov

82 V. Mendes

77 Lucas Araújo

16 V. Vidolov

7 Alberto Salido

10 A. Chandarov

19 Mauro Rodrigues

90 S. Kalu

Coach · S. Genchev

Substitutes

44 · E. Ukaki

1 · H. Slavkov

11 · S. Shopov

22 · M. Senger

17 · G. Milanov

66 · C. Meotti

30 · Franklin Mascote

15 · B. Kostov

88 · W. Chimezie

20 · T. Awany

14 · Carlos Algarra

Our number · cska 1948 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
51% The market47%
Us51%
Market47%

We make CSKA 1948 a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · CSKA 1948 v Botev Plovdiv1.63 – 1.04
Form · last six in First League this season · since 23 AugW3 D0 L3 · W4 D0 L2
Table places · points 22 v 194 v 5
The market · CSKA 1948 win47% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2323 OCT 16:39
Our probability · CSKA 1948 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
CSKA 1948 win51%47%+4
Draw25%27%−2
Botev Plovdiv win24%26%−2
Over 2.5 goals50%52%−2
Both teams to score52%56%−4
Over 1.5 goals74%75%−1
Over 3.5 goals28%32%−4
CSKA 1948 or draw76%74%+2
CSKA 1948 clean sheet36%––
Botev Plovdiv clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%
0123450 7.2 7.1 3.8 1 11.2 11.8 6.0 2.1 2 9.1 9.4 4.9 3 5.0 5.1 2.7 4 2.1 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+CSKA 1948 down, Botev Plovdiv across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting1.80
Over 2.54 of 10
Both scored3 of 10
Last meetingsCSK 0–0 BOT · BOT 1–2 CSK · BOT 0–5 CSK · CSK 0–1 BOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 23 Aug

CSKA 1948

LWLWWL0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–3

BOTEV PLOVDIV

LLWWWW0–1 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Levski Sofia10+1928
2CSKA Sofia11+1827
3Ludogorets10+1426
4CSKA 194811+822
5Botev Plovdiv11+319
6Arda Kardzhali11−217
7Spartak Varna11−413
8Slavia Sofia11011
9Botev Vratsa11−119
10Dunav Ruse11−88
11Lokomotiv Plovdiv11−88
12Lokomotiv Sofia11−78
13Septemvri Sofia11−118
14Cherno More Varna11−116

The competition's standings before kick-off.