Cherno More Varna v Septemvri Sofia prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Cherno More VarnaDrawSeptemvri Sofia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cherno More Varna 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cherno More Varna are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cherno More Varna 60%, draw 24%, Septemvri Sofia 17%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Cherno More Varna v Septemvri SofiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Cherno More Varna win60%

Draw24%

Septemvri Sofia win17%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueTicha

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cherno More Varna

Septemvri Sofia

6Days since last match10

Last match: 21 Oct · Pro Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Septemvri Sofia	11	−11	8
14	Cherno More Varna	11	−11	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cherno more varna winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Cherno More Varna a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cherno More Varna v Septemvri Sofia~~1.75 – 0.78

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 8~~14 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cherno More Varna win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cherno More Varna win	60%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Septemvri Sofia win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Cherno More Varna or draw	83%	–	–
Cherno More Varna clean sheet	46%	–	–
Septemvri Sofia clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 8.3 6.1 2.5 1 13.7 10.9 4.3 2 12.0 9.3 3.7 3 7.1 5.4 2.1 4 3.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cherno More Varna down, Septemvri Sofia across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,458 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.6% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cherno More Varna at home: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Septemvri Sofia away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Cherno More Varna, 0.78 for Septemvri Sofia. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SEP 0–3 CHE · CHE 1–1 SEP · SEP 1–2 CHE · CHE 2–0 SEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 21 Aug

CHERNO MORE VARNA

WLLDDL3–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–2

SEPTEMVRI SOFIA

WDLLLL1–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	10	+19	28
2	CSKA Sofia	11	+18	27
3	Ludogorets	10	+14	26
4	CSKA 1948	12	+12	25
5	Botev Plovdiv	12	−1	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	11	−2	17
7	Spartak Varna	12	−6	13
8	Slavia Sofia	11	0	11
9	Dunav Ruse	12	−6	11
10	Botev Vratsa	11	−11	9
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	−8	8
12	Lokomotiv Sofia	11	−7	8
13	Septemvri Sofia	11	−11	8
14	Cherno More Varna	11	−11	6