Cherno More Varna v Levski Sofia prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Cherno More Varna 0–2 Levski Sofia LEVSKI SOFIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Levski Sofia win~~50%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.381

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.274

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Levski Sofia win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Levski Sofia 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 23–27–50
1′KICK-OFF Cherno More Varna v Levski Sofia
3′Little has changed for our model: Levski Sofia 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 23–28–49
23′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Levski Sofia
25′⚽ GOAL · 26' Cherno More Varna 0–0 Levski Sofia
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Cherno More Varna 0–1 Levski Sofia
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Cherno More Varna 0–1 Levski Sofia
41′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Levski Sofia · On: Álex Centelles · Off: Mustapha Sangaré Corrected
45′HALF-TIME Cherno More Varna 0–1 Levski Sofia
45′SECOND HALF Cherno More Varna 0–1 Levski Sofia
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Cherno More Varna 0–2 Levski Sofia · Mehdi Moubarik
62′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Cherno More Varna · On: Ivan·Tasev · Off: Mohamed Achi Bouakline Corrected
62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' L. Squadrone · Cherno More Varna
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Levski Sofia · On: Aldair · Off: Wabo Oliver Kamdem Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Levski Sofia · On: Kristian Dimitrov · Off: Gasper Trdin Corrected
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Cherno More Varna 0–2 Levski Sofia
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Cherno More Varna · On: Berk Beyhan · Off: Idris·Bounaas Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Cherno More Varna · On: Padilla Jorge · Off: Vasil Panayotov Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Cherno More Varna · On: Miguel barandas · Off: celso sidney Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Cherno More Varna · On: Nestorly lumbu · Off: Georgi ventsislavov Corrected
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Cherno More Varna
87′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Cherno More Varna
92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Levski Sofia · On: Juan Perea · Off: Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno Corrected
92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Levski Sofia · On: Steven Stoyanchov · Off: bala everton Corrected
FTFULL TIME Cherno More Varna 0–2 Levski Sofia
FTCherno More Varna 0–2 Levski Sofia · Levski Sofia win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Cherno More Varna win23%

Draw28%

Levski Sofia win50%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:30

VenueTicha Stadium

Line-ups

Cherno More Varna

4-2-3-1

Levski Sofia

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cherno More Varna

Levski Sofia

22Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	9	+17	25
13	Cherno More Varna	10	−9	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cherno More Varna

4-2-3-1

31 D. Hristov

37 V. Kerchev

93 G. Ventsislavov

5 L. Squadrone

50 E. Tombak

24 D. Teles

99 I. Bounaas

11 M. Achi

71 V. Panayotov

8 A. Donchev

10 C. Sidney

Coach · Ilian Iliev

Substitutes

81 · K. Tomov

14 · A. Todorov

29 · B. Beyhan

26 · Joao Bandaro

17 · I. Tasev

6 · M. Banev

7 · M. Barandas

9 · J. Padilla

44 · N. Lumbu

22 · N. Kostadinov

34 · K. Mihaylov

Levski Sofia

4-3-3

1 O. Vladimirov

71 O. Kamdem

18 G. Trdin

4 C. Makoun

3 Maicon

8 M. Grujic

19 M. Moubarik

35 Serginho

7 Reinaldo

12 M. Sangare

17 Everton Bala

Coach · Julio Velazquez

Substitutes

92 · S. Vutsov

21 · A. Neves

2 · S. Hevertton

50 · K. Dimitrov

55 · P. Hristov

77 · A. Raychev

27 · D. Kusso

11 · A. Oko-Flex

28 · S. Stoyanchov

9 · J. Perea

20 · A. Centelles

Our number · levski sofia winPublished 11 Oct 15:30

50% The market58%

Us50%

~~Market~~58%

We make Levski Sofia a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · levski sofia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 56% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cherno More Varna win	23%	16%	+6
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Levski Sofia win	50%	58%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	39%	43%	−4
Both teams to score	43%	43%	0
Over 1.5 goals	66%	68%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	19%	23%	−4
Cherno More Varna or draw	50%	42%	+8
Cherno More Varna clean sheet	25%	–	–
Levski Sofia clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.5%

0123450 10.8 14.5 10.3 4.8 1 8.8 12.5 8.6 4.1 2 3.8 5.3 3.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cherno More Varna down, Levski Sofia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,451 First League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

15 previous meetings, 1.87 goals a meeting; 6 of 15 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cherno More Varna at home: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Levski Sofia away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.85 goals for Cherno More Varna, 1.41 for Levski Sofia. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

15 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.87

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 15

~~Both scored~~6 of 15

~~Last meetings~~LEV 2–1 CHE · CHE 1–3 LEV · CHE 0–0 LEV · LEV 2–0 CHE

Form · last six in First League

CHERNO MORE VARNA

LWLLDD1–4 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

LEVSKI SOFIA

WWWWWD2–0 · 6–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	9	+17	25
2	CSKA Sofia	10	+17	24
3	Ludogorets	9	+9	23
4	CSKA 1948	10	+9	22
5	Botev Plovdiv	11	+3	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	10	+3	17
7	Spartak Varna	11	−4	13
8	Slavia Sofia	11	0	11
9	Botev Vratsa	11	−11	9
10	Lokomotiv Sofia	11	−7	8
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	−8	8
12	Septemvri Sofia	10	−10	8
13	Cherno More Varna	10	−9	6
14	Dunav Ruse	10	−9	5