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Botev Vratsa v Spartak Varna

Botev Vratsa

0–1Full time

Spartak Varna

First League · SAT 10 OCT · Hristo Botev Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Botev Vratsa 0–1 Spartak Varna BOTEV VRATSA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Botev Vratsa win~~44%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.781

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.963

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Botev Vratsa win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Botev Vratsa v Spartak Varna
3′Much as we predicted: Botev Vratsa was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Botev Vratsa win 35%)
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Spartak Varna
45′HALF-TIME Botev Vratsa 0–0 Spartak Varna
46′13.0 shots for Botev Vratsa, 7.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 34–42–24
46′SECOND HALF Botev Vratsa 0–0 Spartak Varna
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Botev Vratsa win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Spartak Varna · On: boris ivanov · Off: anton ivanov Corrected
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Botev Vratsa 0–1 Spartak Varna
61′⚽ GOAL · 58' Botev Vratsa 0–1 Spartak Varna · Boubacar Hanne
65′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Angel Granchov · Spartak Varna
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Spartak Varna · On: Edson Martinho Silva · Off: Joao Lopes Corrected
67′Spartak Varna ahead on 58′ through Boubacar Hanne. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–20–76
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Botev Vratsa win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Spartak Varna win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 20%)
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Martin Detelinov Petkov · Botev Vratsa
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Spartak Varna · On: Tsvetelin Chunchukov · Off: Okoh chidera Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Spartak Varna · On: Deyan Lozev · Off: David Valverde Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Botev Vratsa · On: Daniel Genov · Off: Vladislav Naydenov Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Botev Vratsa · On: samuil mechev · Off: Jose Gallegos Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Spartak Varna · On: Vasco Oliveira · Off: ricardo sousa Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Botev Vratsa · On: Boyanov · Off: Buchkov Corrected
88′We said Botev Vratsa at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 0–1 · 0–3–97
FTFULL TIME Botev Vratsa 0–1 Spartak Varna
FTBotev Vratsa 0–1 Spartak Varna · Botev Vratsa win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Botev Vratsa win44%

Draw28%

Spartak Varna win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Hristo Botev Stadium

Referee · Stoyanov·Georgi

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Botev Vratsa

4-2-3-1

94 M. Orlinov

3 S. Sanyang

4 I. Goranov

36 M. Stoev

25 A. Buchkov

7 R. Tsonev

12 I. Yurukov

24 M. Smolenski

10 J. Gallegos

97 V. Naydenov

79 M. Petkov

Coach · Todor Simov

Substitutes

17 · S. Mechev

11 · M. Achkov

9 · D. Genov

90 · F. Gigov

21 · M. Dimitrov

98 · L. Vasilev

6 · A. Kichukov

88 · L. Boyanov

8 · A. Stoyanov

Spartak Varna

4-2-3-1

23 P. Iliev

76 D. Valverde

44 A. Granchov

5 D. Krastev

29 Z. Tindano

19 S. Major

6 R. Sousa

11 B. Hanne

10 Jota Lopes

77 A. Ivanov

90 O. M. Chidera

Coach · Yasen Petrov

Substitutes

14 · D. Pavlov

45 · J. Tshitoku

20 · D. Lozev

4 · B. Ivanov

9 · T. Chunchukov

1 · P. Victor

72 · V. Oliveira

16 · E. Silva

7 · Bua

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Botev Vratsa

4-2-3-1

94 M. Orlinov

3 S. Sanyang

4 I. Goranov

36 M. Stoev

25 A. Buchkov

7 R. Tsonev

12 I. Yurukov

24 M. Smolenski

10 J. Gallegos

97 V. Naydenov

79 M. Petkov

Coach · Todor Simov

Substitutes

17 · S. Mechev

11 · M. Achkov

9 · D. Genov

90 · F. Gigov

21 · M. Dimitrov

98 · L. Vasilev

6 · A. Kichukov

88 · L. Boyanov

8 · A. Stoyanov

Spartak Varna

4-2-3-1

23 P. Iliev

76 D. Valverde

44 A. Granchov

5 D. Krastev

29 Z. Tindano

19 S. Major

6 R. Sousa

11 B. Hanne

10 Jota Lopes

77 A. Ivanov

90 O. M. Chidera

Coach · Yasen Petrov

Substitutes

14 · D. Pavlov

45 · J. Tshitoku

20 · D. Lozev

4 · B. Ivanov

9 · T. Chunchukov

1 · P. Victor

72 · V. Oliveira

16 · E. Silva

7 · Bua

Our number · botev vratsa winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

44% The market51%

Us44%

~~Market~~51%

We make Botev Vratsa a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · botev vratsa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Botev Vratsa win	44%	51%	−7
Draw	28%	28%	0
Spartak Varna win	28%	21%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	43%	44%	0
Both teams to score	48%	47%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	23%	−1
Botev Vratsa or draw	72%	79%	−7
Botev Vratsa clean sheet	35%	–	–
Spartak Varna clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.4 9.2 4.9 1 12.0 12.9 6.6 2.3 2 8.4 8.6 4.5 3 3.8 4.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Botev Vratsa down, Spartak Varna across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,448 First League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.2% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Botev Vratsa at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Spartak Varna away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Botev Vratsa, 1.05 for Spartak Varna. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 12:59. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BOT 2–1 SPA · BOT 2–0 SPA · SPA 1–1 BOT · SPA 1–0 BOT

Form · last six in First League

BOTEV VRATSA

LWLWDD0–5 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 2–2

SPARTAK VARNA

LLDDDL0–1 · 0–6 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	9	+17	25
2	CSKA Sofia	10	+17	24
3	Ludogorets	9	+9	23
4	CSKA 1948	10	+9	22
5	Arda Kardzhali	10	+3	17
6	Botev Plovdiv	10	+2	16
7	Slavia Sofia	10	+1	11
8	Spartak Varna	10	−5	10
9	Botev Vratsa	10	−10	9
10	Septemvri Sofia	10	−10	8
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	10	−7	7
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10	−8	7
13	Cherno More Varna	10	−9	6
14	Dunav Ruse	10	−9	5