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Botev Plovdiv v Slavia Sofia

Botev Plovdiv

1–0Full time

Slavia Sofia

First League · SAT 10 OCT · Hristo Botev Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:31

Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Slavia Sofia BOTEV PLOVDIV WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Botev Plovdiv win~~48%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.413

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.283

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Botev Plovdiv win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Botev Plovdiv 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
1′KICK-OFF Botev Plovdiv v Slavia Sofia
4′Little has changed for our model: Botev Plovdiv 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
33′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Slavia Sofia
45′SECOND HALF Botev Plovdiv 0–0 Slavia Sofia
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Slavia Sofia
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Slavia Sofia · On: yoan bornosuzov · Off: Vladimir Nikolov Corrected
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Botev Plovdiv · On: Bogdan Kostov · Off: Bryan Hein Corrected
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Slavia Sofia · On: yoan bornosuzov · Off: Vladimir Nikolov Corrected
49′⚽ GOAL · 46' Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Slavia Sofia · alberto tajero saido
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Slavia Sofia
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Botev Plovdiv
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Botev Plovdiv · On: mascote · Off: alberto tajero saido Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Botev Plovdiv · On: Carlos algarra · Off: Asen Chandarov Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Slavia Sofia · On: Roberto Iliev Raychev · Off: vasil kazaldzhiev Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Slavia Sofia · On: umaro balde · Off: Emil Stoev Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Botev Plovdiv · On: Georgi Milanov · Off: Mauro Rodrigues Corrected
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Vladimir Mendes · Botev Plovdiv
93′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Dimitar Burov · Slavia Sofia
93′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Slavia Sofia · On: Jordan Semedo Varela · Off: Dimitar Burov Corrected
93′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Slavia Sofia · On: emilian gogev · Off: Kristiyan Stoyanov Corrected
93′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Slavia Sofia
FTFULL TIME Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Slavia Sofia
FTBotev Plovdiv 1–0 Slavia Sofia · Botev Plovdiv win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Botev Plovdiv win48%

Draw26%

Slavia Sofia win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Hristo Botev Stadium

Referee · Nikola Popov

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Botev Plovdiv

4-2-3-1

29 D. Naumov

27 B. Hein

4 N. Soldo

87 S. Petrov

82 V. Mendes

10 A. Chandarov

77 Lucas Araujo

90 S. Kalu

16 V. Vidolov

19 M. Rodrigues

7 A. Salido Tajero

Coach · Stanislav Genchev

Substitutes

1 · H. Slavkov

11 · S. Shopov

14 · C. Algarra

15 · B. Kostov

17 · G. Milanov

20 · T. Awany

22 · M. Senger

66 · C. Meotti

88 · W. Chimezie

44 · E. Ukaki

30 · Mascote

Slavia Sofia

4-2-3-1

99 I. Andonov

87 Diego

4 N. Savic

24 L. Marin

26 D. Burov

95 V. Miletic

71 K. Stoyanov

77 E. Stoev

73 I. Minchev

17 V. Kazaldzhiev

10 V. Nikolov

Coach · Ratko Dostanic

Substitutes

63 · L. Ntumba

8 · G. Shopov

9 · Y. Bornosuzov

6 · B. Todorov

5 · D. Malembana

7 · R. Raychev

3 · M. Georgiev

19 · E. Gogev

27 · U. Balde

23 · I. Antonov

20 · J. Semedo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Botev Plovdiv

4-2-3-1

29 D. Naumov

27 B. Hein

4 N. Soldo

87 S. Petrov

82 V. Mendes

10 A. Chandarov

77 Lucas Araujo

90 S. Kalu

16 V. Vidolov

19 M. Rodrigues

7 A. Salido Tajero

Coach · Stanislav Genchev

Substitutes

1 · H. Slavkov

11 · S. Shopov

14 · C. Algarra

15 · B. Kostov

17 · G. Milanov

20 · T. Awany

22 · M. Senger

66 · C. Meotti

88 · W. Chimezie

44 · E. Ukaki

30 · Mascote

Slavia Sofia

4-2-3-1

99 I. Andonov

87 Diego

4 N. Savic

24 L. Marin

26 D. Burov

95 V. Miletic

71 K. Stoyanov

77 E. Stoev

73 I. Minchev

17 V. Kazaldzhiev

10 V. Nikolov

Coach · Ratko Dostanic

Substitutes

63 · L. Ntumba

8 · G. Shopov

9 · Y. Bornosuzov

6 · B. Todorov

5 · D. Malembana

7 · R. Raychev

3 · M. Georgiev

19 · E. Gogev

27 · U. Balde

23 · I. Antonov

20 · J. Semedo

Our number · botev plovdiv winPublished 10 Oct 18:18

48% The market61%

Us48%

~~Market~~61%

We make Botev Plovdiv a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · botev plovdiv win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 55% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Botev Plovdiv win	48%	61%	−13
Draw	26%	23%	+4
Slavia Sofia win	26%	16%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	46%	52%	−7
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	75%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	32%	−7
Botev Plovdiv or draw	74%	84%	−10
Botev Plovdiv clean sheet	36%	–	–
Slavia Sofia clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.6 8.2 4.3 1 11.9 12.4 6.2 2.2 2 8.9 9.0 4.6 3 4.5 4.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Botev Plovdiv down, Slavia Sofia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,448 First League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.2% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

15 previous meetings, 1.87 goals a meeting; 5 of 15 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Botev Plovdiv at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Slavia Sofia away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Botev Plovdiv, 1.02 for Slavia Sofia. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

15 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.87

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 15

~~Both scored~~6 of 15

~~Last meetings~~SLA 0–1 BOT · BOT 1–1 SLA · SLA 3–2 BOT · BOT 1–0 SLA

Form · last six in First League

BOTEV PLOVDIV

LLLWWW0–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 3–0

SLAVIA SOFIA

DDLWDL1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	9	+17	25
2	CSKA Sofia	10	+17	24
3	Ludogorets	9	+9	23
4	CSKA 1948	10	+9	22
5	Arda Kardzhali	10	+3	17
6	Botev Plovdiv	10	+2	16
7	Slavia Sofia	10	+1	11
8	Spartak Varna	10	−5	10
9	Botev Vratsa	10	−10	9
10	Septemvri Sofia	10	−10	8
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	10	−7	7
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10	−8	7
13	Cherno More Varna	10	−9	6
14	Dunav Ruse	10	−9	5