Arda Kardzhali v Levski Sofia prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Arda KardzhaliDrawLevski Sofia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Levski Sofia 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Levski Sofia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arda Kardzhali 24%, draw 27%, Levski Sofia 50%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Arda Kardzhali v Levski SofiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Arda Kardzhali win24%

Draw27%

Levski Sofia win50%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueArena Arda

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arda Kardzhali

Levski Sofia

9Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · levski sofia winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Levski Sofia a 50% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.5, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arda Kardzhali v Levski Sofia~~0.92 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 17 v 28~~6 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Levski Sofia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arda Kardzhali win	24%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Levski Sofia win	50%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Arda Kardzhali or draw	50%	–	–
Arda Kardzhali clean sheet	23%	–	–
Levski Sofia clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.5 13.2 9.8 4.9 1 8.2 12.4 8.9 4.4 2 3.9 5.7 4.1 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arda Kardzhali down, Levski Sofia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,458 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.6% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arda Kardzhali at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Levski Sofia away: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Arda Kardzhali, 1.47 for Levski Sofia. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LEV 1–0 ARD · ARD 0–3 LEV · ARD 0–3 LEV · LEV 1–1 ARD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 22 Aug

ARDA KARDZHALI

WWLLDL1–0 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 0–5

LEVSKI SOFIA

WWWWDW6–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	10	+19	28
2	CSKA Sofia	11	+18	27
3	Ludogorets	10	+14	26
4	CSKA 1948	12	+12	25
5	Botev Plovdiv	12	−1	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	11	−2	17
7	Spartak Varna	12	−6	13
8	Slavia Sofia	11	0	11
9	Dunav Ruse	12	−6	11
10	Botev Vratsa	12	−11	10
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	12	−7	9
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	−8	8
13	Septemvri Sofia	11	−11	8
14	Cherno More Varna	11	−11	6