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Yantra 2019 v Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Yantra 2019
0–2Full time
Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Cup · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:31
Yantra 2019 0–2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv LOKOMOTIV PLOVDIV WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Lokomotiv Plovdiv win41%
The market said61%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.531
The market’s Brier score0.234

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lokomotiv Plovdiv win at 41%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Lokomotiv Plovdiv was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 28–31–41
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Yantra 2019 v Lokomotiv Plovdiv
  4. 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Lokomotiv Plovdiv win 35%)
  5. 37′Lokomotiv Plovdiv score on 37′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–19–76
  6. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Yantra 2019 0–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
  7. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Lokomotiv Plovdiv win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
  8. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Lokomotiv Plovdiv win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
  9. 38′We published Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 41%. Our model now makes it 76%. 0–1 · 5–18–76
  10. 39′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 5–18–77
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Yantra 2019 0–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
  12. 45′SECOND HALF Yantra 2019 0–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
  13. 52′We published Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  14. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Lokomotiv Plovdiv win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
  15. 56′Lokomotiv Plovdiv find the net on 55′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
  16. 56′We published Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 41%. Our model now makes it 97%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
  17. 56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Yantra 2019 0–2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
  18. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Lokomotiv Plovdiv win: 41% at kick-off, 97% now
  19. 79′We published Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  20. 90′Full time, 0–2. We called Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 41% — that one lands. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  21. FTFULL TIME Yantra 2019 0–2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
  22. FTYantra 2019 0–2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv · Lokomotiv Plovdiv win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lokomotiv Plovdiv are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yantra 2019 27%, draw 32%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 41%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Yantra 2019 v Lokomotiv PlovdivBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Yantra 2019 win27%
Draw32%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win41%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yantra 2019

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

7Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · the Bulgarian Second League

Last match: 10 Oct · the Bulgarian First League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lokomotiv plovdiv winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off
41% The market61%
Us41%
Market61%

We make Lokomotiv Plovdiv a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 20 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Yantra 2019 v Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.84 – 1.09
The market · Lokomotiv Plovdiv win61% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%40%50%60%70% 10 OCT 04:0216 OCT 16:35
Our probability · Lokomotiv Plovdiv win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Yantra 2019 win27%16%+11
Draw32%23%+9
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win41%61%−20
Over 2.5 goals30%51%−21
Both teams to score38%49%−11
Over 1.5 goals58%74%−16
Over 3.5 goals13%31%−18
Yantra 2019 or draw59%39%+20
Yantra 2019 clean sheet34%––
Lokomotiv Plovdiv clean sheet43%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.4%
0123450 15.0 15.4 8.6 3.1 1 11.8 13.7 7.2 2.6 2 5.1 5.6 3.0 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Yantra 2019 down, Lokomotiv Plovdiv across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 4 Oct

YANTRA 2019

W3–1

LOKOMOTIV PLOVDIV

No matches in our record yet.