Vihren v Lokomotiv Sofia
VihrenLokomotiv SofiaCup · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Lokomotiv Sofia win at 42%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Lokomotiv Sofia 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 33–25–42
- 1′KICK-OFF Vihren v Lokomotiv Sofia
- 28′A goal for Vihren on 29′. 0–0 · 31–30–39
- 29′We said Lokomotiv Sofia at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 61–23–16
- 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Vihren 1–0 Lokomotiv Sofia
- 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Lokomotiv Sofia win: 42% at kick-off, 16% now
- 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Vihren win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Lokomotiv Sofia win 16%)
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 62–23–16
- 35′We said Lokomotiv Sofia at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
- 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Lokomotiv Sofia win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Vihren 1–0 Lokomotiv Sofia
- 45′SECOND HALF Vihren 1–0 Lokomotiv Sofia
- 52′We said Lokomotiv Sofia at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
- 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Vihren 1–1 Lokomotiv Sofia
- 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Lokomotiv Sofia win: 42% at kick-off, 31% now
- 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Vihren win 26%)
- 57′Lokomotiv Sofia find the net on 56′. 1–1. 1–1 · 26–44–31
- 58′We said Lokomotiv Sofia at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 25–45–30
- 60′We said Lokomotiv Sofia at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 24–46–29
- 69′We said Lokomotiv Sofia at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 20–56–24
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Lokomotiv Sofia win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
- 78′We said Lokomotiv Sofia at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–2 · 1–13–86
- 78′A goal for Lokomotiv Sofia on 78′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–13–86
- 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Vihren 1–2 Lokomotiv Sofia
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Lokomotiv Sofia win: 42% at kick-off, 86% now
- 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Lokomotiv Sofia win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 13%)
- 82′We said Lokomotiv Sofia at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Lokomotiv Sofia win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
- 89′We said Lokomotiv Sofia at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
- 90′1–2 at the end. Our 42% on Lokomotiv Sofia comes in. 1–2 · 0–0–100
- FTFULL TIME Vihren 1–2 Lokomotiv Sofia
- FTVihren 1–2 Lokomotiv Sofia · Lokomotiv Sofia win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassLokomotiv Sofia are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Vihren 33%, draw 25%, Lokomotiv Sofia 42%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Vihren win33%Lokomotiv Sofia win42%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 10:00
RoundRound of 32
Match timeline
All events
VihrenMINLokomotiv SofiaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Vihren
Lokomotiv Sofia
Last match: 9 Oct · the Bulgarian Second League
Last match: 10 Oct · the Bulgarian First League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Lokomotiv Sofia a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vihren win | 33% | 22% | +11 |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 0 |
| Lokomotiv Sofia win | 42% | 53% | −11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 39% | −3 |
| Vihren or draw | 58% | 47% | +11 |
| Vihren clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
| Lokomotiv Sofia clean sheet | 24% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Cup this season · since 3 Oct
VIHREN
LOKOMOTIV SOFIA
No matches in our record yet.