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Spartak Plovdiv v Arda Kardzhali

Spartak Plovdiv
1–2Full time
Arda Kardzhali

Cup · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
Spartak Plovdiv 1–2 Arda Kardzhali ARDA KARDZHALI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG0–3 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Arda Kardzhali win88%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.023

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Arda Kardzhali win at 88%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Arda Kardzhali 88% before kick-off, 88% now. 0–0 · 3–9–88
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Spartak Plovdiv v Arda Kardzhali
  4. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Arda Kardzhali win: 88% at kick-off, 78% now
  5. 35′A goal for Arda Kardzhali on 35′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 1–5–94
  6. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Spartak Plovdiv 0–1 Arda Kardzhali
  7. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Arda Kardzhali win: 88% at kick-off, 94% now
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Spartak Plovdiv 0–1 Arda Kardzhali
  9. 46′SECOND HALF Spartak Plovdiv 0–1 Arda Kardzhali
  10. 54′Spartak Plovdiv score on 53′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 6–28–66
  11. 54′We said Arda Kardzhali at 88%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 66%. 1–1 · 6–28–66
  12. 54′The goal count is tracking the 3.9 we expected. 1–1 · 6–28–66
  13. 54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Spartak Plovdiv 1–1 Arda Kardzhali
  14. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Arda Kardzhali win: 88% at kick-off, 66% now
  15. 56′We said Arda Kardzhali at 88%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 1–1 · 7–29–64
  16. 61′We said Arda Kardzhali at 88%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 1–1 · 7–34–59
  17. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Arda Kardzhali win: 88% at kick-off, 58% now
  18. 66′Arda Kardzhali find the net on 65′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
  19. 66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Spartak Plovdiv 1–2 Arda Kardzhali
  20. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Arda Kardzhali win: 88% at kick-off, 94% now
  21. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Arda Kardzhali win: 88% at kick-off, 98% now
  22. FTFULL TIME Spartak Plovdiv 1–2 Arda Kardzhali
  23. FTSpartak Plovdiv 1–2 Arda Kardzhali · Arda Kardzhali win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 0–3 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arda Kardzhali are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spartak Plovdiv 3%, draw 8%, Arda Kardzhali 88%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Spartak Plovdiv v Arda KardzhaliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Spartak Plovdiv win3%
Draw8%
Arda Kardzhali win88%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spartak Plovdiv

Arda Kardzhali

8Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southeast

Last match: 12 Oct · the Bulgarian First League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arda kardzhali winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
88% The market–
Us88%

We make Arda Kardzhali an 88% chance to win. The model expects 0.6–3.3, and 0–3 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Spartak Plovdiv v Arda Kardzhali0.60 – 3.35

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
85%90% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 12:53
Our probability · Arda Kardzhali win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Spartak Plovdiv win3%––
Draw8%––
Arda Kardzhali win88%––
Over 2.5 goals75%––
Both teams to score44%––
Over 1.5 goals91%––
Over 3.5 goals56%––
Spartak Plovdiv or draw12%––
Spartak Plovdiv clean sheet4%––
Arda Kardzhali clean sheet55%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–3 at 12.0%
0123450 2.0 6.3 10.8 12.0 10.1 6.81 4.0 6.5 7.3 6.1 4.12 2.2 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Spartak Plovdiv down, Arda Kardzhali across0–5 goals a side shown (87.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 4 Oct

SPARTAK PLOVDIV

W1–0

ARDA KARDZHALI

No matches in our record yet.