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Spartak Pleven v Levski Sofia

Spartak Pleven
0–2Full time
Levski Sofia

Cup · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32
Spartak Pleven 0–2 Levski Sofia LEVSKI SOFIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Levski Sofia win86%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.032

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Levski Sofia win at 86%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Levski Sofia was 86% before kick-off and our model makes it 86% now. 0–0 · 3–11–86
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Spartak Pleven v Levski Sofia
  4. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Levski Sofia win: 86% at kick-off, 76% now
  5. 34′We said Levski Sofia at 86%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 74%. 0–0 · 5–21–74
  6. 43′We said Levski Sofia at 86%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 69%. 0–0 · 5–26–69
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Spartak Pleven 0–0 Levski Sofia
  8. 46′HALF-TIME Spartak Pleven 0–0 Levski Sofia
  9. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Levski Sofia win: 86% at kick-off, 66% now
  10. 50′We said Levski Sofia at 86%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 5–30–64
  11. 55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 5–34–60
  12. 56′We said Levski Sofia at 86%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 5–35–59
  13. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Spartak Pleven 0–1 Levski Sofia
  14. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Levski Sofia win: 86% at kick-off, 95% now
  15. 57′A goal for Levski Sofia on 57′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  16. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Levski Sofia win: 86% at kick-off, 96% now
  17. 79′We published Levski Sofia at 86%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  18. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Spartak Pleven 0–2 Levski Sofia
  19. 80′Levski Sofia score on 80′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  20. 93′Full time, 0–2. We called Levski Sofia at 86% — that one lands. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  21. FTFULL TIME Spartak Pleven 0–2 Levski Sofia
  22. FTSpartak Pleven 0–2 Levski Sofia · Levski Sofia win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Levski Sofia are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spartak Pleven 3%, draw 11%, Levski Sofia 86%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on Spartak Pleven v Levski SofiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Spartak Pleven win3%
Draw11%
Levski Sofia win86%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spartak Pleven

Levski Sofia

8Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · the Bulgarian Second League

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · levski sofia winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
86% The market–
Us86%

We make Levski Sofia an 86% chance to win. The model expects 0.4–2.8, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Spartak Pleven v Levski Sofia0.41 – 2.76

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
80%85%90% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 15:53
Our probability · Levski Sofia win

Published at 85%, 86% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Spartak Pleven win3%––
Draw11%––
Levski Sofia win86%––
Over 2.5 goals61%––
Both teams to score32%––
Over 1.5 goals83%––
Over 3.5 goals39%––
Spartak Pleven or draw14%––
Spartak Pleven clean sheet6%––
Levski Sofia clean sheet66%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 16.0%
0123450 4.4 11.4 16.0 14.7 10.2 5.61 4.9 6.5 6.0 4.2 2.32 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Spartak Pleven down, Levski Sofia across0–5 goals a side shown (93.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 3 Oct

SPARTAK PLEVEN

W2–1

LEVSKI SOFIA

No matches in our record yet.