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Model 1.2

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Rilski Sportist v Dunav Ruse

Rilski Sportist
2–3Full time
Dunav Ruse

Cup · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Rilski Sportist 2–3 Dunav Ruse DUNAV RUSE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Dunav Ruse win47%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.417
The market’s Brier score0.331

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dunav Ruse win at 47%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Dunav Ruse was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 24–29–47
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Rilski Sportist v Dunav Ruse
  4. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 6–17–77
  5. 31′We published Dunav Ruse at 47%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 6–17–77
  6. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Rilski Sportist 0–1 Dunav Ruse
  7. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Dunav Ruse win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
  8. 32′Dunav Ruse find the net on 31′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–17–77
  9. 36′A goal for Dunav Ruse on 36′. 0–1 · 5–17–78
  10. 37′We published Dunav Ruse at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
  11. 37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Rilski Sportist 0–2 Dunav Ruse
  12. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Dunav Ruse win: 47% at kick-off, 95% now
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Rilski Sportist 0–2 Dunav Ruse
  14. 45′SECOND HALF Rilski Sportist 0–2 Dunav Ruse
  15. 52′We published Dunav Ruse at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–16–80
  16. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Dunav Ruse win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  17. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Rilski Sportist 1–2 Dunav Ruse
  18. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Dunav Ruse win: 47% at kick-off, 80% now
  19. 53′Rilski Sportist score on 52′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 3–16–81
  20. 53′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 3–16–81
  21. 66′We published Dunav Ruse at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
  22. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Dunav Ruse win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
  23. 75′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
  24. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Rilski Sportist 1–3 Dunav Ruse
  25. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Dunav Ruse win: 47% at kick-off, 99% now
  26. 76′Dunav Ruse find the net on 75′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
  27. 79′We published Dunav Ruse at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  28. 90′Full time, 2–3. We called Dunav Ruse at 47% — that one lands. 2–3 · 0–0–100
  29. 94′A goal for Rilski Sportist on 90′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–1–99
  30. 94′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–1–99
  31. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Rilski Sportist 2–3 Dunav Ruse
  32. FTFULL TIME Rilski Sportist 2–3 Dunav Ruse
  33. FTRilski Sportist 2–3 Dunav Ruse · Dunav Ruse win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dunav Ruse are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rilski Sportist 24%, draw 28%, Dunav Ruse 47%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Rilski Sportist v Dunav RuseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rilski Sportist win24%
Draw28%
Dunav Ruse win47%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rilski Sportist

Dunav Ruse

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Bulgarian Second League

Last match: 11 Oct · the Bulgarian First League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dunav ruse winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
47% The market53%
Us47%
Market53%

We make Dunav Ruse a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Rilski Sportist v Dunav Ruse0.90 – 1.37
The market · Dunav Ruse win53% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 12:29
Our probability · Dunav Ruse win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Rilski Sportist win24%21%+3
Draw28%26%+2
Dunav Ruse win47%53%−6
Over 2.5 goals40%50%−10
Both teams to score45%52%−7
Over 1.5 goals67%73%−6
Over 3.5 goals20%29%−9
Rilski Sportist or draw53%47%+6
Rilski Sportist clean sheet25%––
Dunav Ruse clean sheet41%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.7%
0123450 10.7 13.7 9.7 4.4 1 8.9 13.2 8.7 4.0 2 4.2 5.7 3.9 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Rilski Sportist down, Dunav Ruse across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsRIL 1–3 DUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 4 Oct

RILSKI SPORTIST

W4–0

DUNAV RUSE

No matches in our record yet.