Nesebar v CSKA Sofia
NesebarCSKA SofiaCup · SUN 18 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said CSKA Sofia win at 84%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: CSKA Sofia 84% before kick-off, 83% now. 0–0 · 5–12–83
- 1′KICK-OFF Nesebar v CSKA Sofia
- 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' CSKA Sofia win: 84% at kick-off, 74% now
- 34′We said CSKA Sofia at 84%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 72%. 0–0 · 7–21–72
- 40′We said CSKA Sofia at 84%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 69%. 0–0 · 7–23–69
- 45′HALF-TIME Nesebar 0–0 CSKA Sofia
- 46′SECOND HALF Nesebar 0–0 CSKA Sofia
- 48′We said CSKA Sofia at 84%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 7–28–64
- 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' CSKA Sofia win: 84% at kick-off, 64% now
- 55′We said CSKA Sofia at 84%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 8–33–59
- 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 8–33–59
- 61′We said CSKA Sofia at 84%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 7–39–54
- 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' CSKA Sofia win: 84% at kick-off, 54% now
- 65′We said CSKA Sofia at 84%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 7–44–49
- 69′We said CSKA Sofia at 84%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 7–49–44
- 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' CSKA Sofia win: 84% at kick-off, 44% now
- 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was CSKA Sofia win 44%)
- 73′We said CSKA Sofia at 84%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 6–55–38
- 76′We said CSKA Sofia at 84%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 6–61–33
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' CSKA Sofia win: 84% at kick-off, 33% now
- 79′We said CSKA Sofia at 84%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 5–67–28
- 81′We said CSKA Sofia at 84%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 4–72–24
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' CSKA Sofia win: 84% at kick-off, 24% now
- 83′We said CSKA Sofia at 84%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 4–77–19
- 86′We said CSKA Sofia at 84%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 3–83–14
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' CSKA Sofia win: 84% at kick-off, 14% now
- 89′A goal for CSKA Sofia on 89′. 0–0 · 2–88–10
- 89′We said CSKA Sofia at 84% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–1 · 0–2–98
- 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Nesebar 0–1 CSKA Sofia
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' CSKA Sofia win: 84% at kick-off, 98% now
- 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' CSKA Sofia win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
- 96′We said CSKA Sofia at 84% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
- 96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Nesebar 0–2 CSKA Sofia
- 97′CSKA Sofia find the net on 90′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
- FTFULL TIME Nesebar 0–2 CSKA Sofia
- FTNesebar 0–2 CSKA Sofia · CSKA Sofia win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
CSKA Sofia are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Nesebar 5%, draw 12%, CSKA Sofia 84%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 42%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Nesebar win5%CSKA Sofia win84%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00
RoundRound of 32
Match timeline
All events
NesebarMINCSKA SofiaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Nesebar
CSKA Sofia
Last match: 10 Oct · the Bulgarian Second League
Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make CSKA Sofia an 84% chance to win. The model expects 0.6–2.9, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 82%, 84% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nesebar win | 5% | – | – |
| Draw | 12% | – | – |
| CSKA Sofia win | 84% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 42% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | – | – |
| Nesebar or draw | 16% | – | – |
| Nesebar clean sheet | 6% | – | – |
| CSKA Sofia clean sheet | 56% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Cup this season · since 4 Oct
NESEBAR
CSKA SOFIA
No matches in our record yet.