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Model 1.2

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Marek v Cherno More Varna

Marek
0–3Full time
Cherno More Varna

Cup · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Marek 0–3 Cherno More Varna CHERNO MORE VARNA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Cherno More Varna win54%
The market said71%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.328
The market’s Brier score0.129

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Cherno More Varna win at 54%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Cherno More Varna was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 18–29–53
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Marek v Cherno More Varna
  4. 18′Cherno More Varna find the net on 18′. 0–0 · 17–33–49
  5. 19′We published Cherno More Varna at 54%. Our model now makes it 83%. 0–1 · 4–14–83
  6. 19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Marek 0–1 Cherno More Varna
  7. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Cherno More Varna win: 54% at kick-off, 83% now
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 3–14–83
  9. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Cherno More Varna win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Marek 0–1 Cherno More Varna
  11. 45′SECOND HALF Marek 0–1 Cherno More Varna
  12. 47′We published Cherno More Varna at 54%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
  13. 67′A goal for Cherno More Varna on 67′. 0–1 · 1–10–89
  14. 67′We published Cherno More Varna at 54%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  15. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Marek 0–2 Cherno More Varna
  16. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Cherno More Varna win: 54% at kick-off, 99% now
  17. 75′We published Cherno More Varna at 54%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  18. 81′Cherno More Varna find the net on 81′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  19. 81′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  20. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Marek 0–3 Cherno More Varna
  21. FTFULL TIME Marek 0–3 Cherno More Varna
  22. FTMarek 0–3 Cherno More Varna · Cherno More Varna win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cherno More Varna are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Marek 18%, draw 29%, Cherno More Varna 54%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Marek v Cherno More VarnaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Marek win18%
Draw29%
Cherno More Varna win54%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Marek

Cherno More Varna

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Bulgarian Second League

Last match: 11 Oct · the Bulgarian First League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cherno more varna winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off
54% The market71%
Us54%
Market71%

We make Cherno More Varna a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Marek v Cherno More Varna0.66 – 1.38
The market · Cherno More Varna win71% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70%75% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 12:29
Our probability · Cherno More Varna win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Marek win18%10%+8
Draw29%19%+10
Cherno More Varna win54%71%−17
Over 2.5 goals33%57%−24
Both teams to score37%46%−9
Over 1.5 goals61%78%−17
Over 3.5 goals15%38%−23
Marek or draw46%29%+17
Marek clean sheet25%––
Cherno More Varna clean sheet51%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 17.5%
0123450 13.4 17.5 12.3 5.6 1 8.3 12.3 8.2 3.7 2 2.9 3.9 2.7 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Marek down, Cherno More Varna across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 4 Oct

MAREK

W4–0

CHERNO MORE VARNA

No matches in our record yet.